**Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model leads LMArena.ai's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1504 Elo as of the March 26 update, powering its 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30.** This dominance follows Anthropic's early March launch of Claude Opus 4.6—the first to top multiple Chatbot Arena benchmarks—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo, 3rd) and xAI's fresh Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 4th). Amid a March surge of rival releases from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and others, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's competitive edge in reasoning and agentic tasks, though upcoming model drops from xAI or Google could narrow the gap before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 78%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.9%
$639,360 Объем
$639,360 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
78%
xAI
7%
6%
OpenAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 78%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.9%
$639,360 Объем
$639,360 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$15,587 Объем
78%
xAI
$126,195 Объем
7%
$22,065 Объем
6%
OpenAI
$60,702 Объем
3%
DeepSeek
$219,950 Объем
2%
Mistral
$61,424 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$6,416 Объем
1%
Moonshot
$58,259 Объем
1%
ByteDance
$6,267 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$24,700 Объем
1%
Amazon
$25,554 Объем
1%
Meituan
$5,889 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$6,352 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model leads LMArena.ai's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1504 Elo as of the March 26 update, powering its 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30.** This dominance follows Anthropic's early March launch of Claude Opus 4.6—the first to top multiple Chatbot Arena benchmarks—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo, 3rd) and xAI's fresh Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 4th). Amid a March surge of rival releases from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and others, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's competitive edge in reasoning and agentic tasks, though upcoming model drops from xAI or Google could narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Объем
$639,360Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model leads LMArena.ai's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1504 Elo as of the March 26 update, powering its 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30.** This dominance follows Anthropic's early March launch of Claude Opus 4.6—the first to top multiple Chatbot Arena benchmarks—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo, 3rd) and xAI's fresh Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 4th). Amid a March surge of rival releases from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and others, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's competitive edge in reasoning and agentic tasks, though upcoming model drops from xAI or Google could narrow the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$639,360Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6-thinking model leads LMArena.ai's Text leaderboard (Style Control On) at 1504 Elo as of the March 26 update, powering its 78% implied probability of retaining the #1 spot by April 30.** This dominance follows Anthropic's early March launch of Claude Opus 4.6—the first to top multiple Chatbot Arena benchmarks—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493 Elo, 3rd) and xAI's fresh Grok-4.20 beta (1491 Elo, 4th). Amid a March surge of rival releases from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and others, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's competitive edge in reasoning and agentic tasks, though upcoming model drops from xAI or Google could narrow the gap before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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