Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 79.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged lead since its February 2026 release, where it excels in reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks while minimizing stylistic biases. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid shipping cadence, including voice mode, persistent memory, and ChatGPT import features that surged app downloads and server demand last week. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (7%) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (5.5%) trail closely on Elo scores but lack displacement momentum, while OpenAI's GPT-5.x (2.7%) has faded amid benchmark shortfalls. Watch for unannounced rival model drops before resolution, as leaderboard volatility persists in this fast-evolving large language model race.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 80%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.7%
$642,032 Объем
$642,032 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
80%
xAI
7%
6%
OpenAI
3%
DeepSeek
2%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 80%
xAI 7.0%
Google 6%
OpenAI 2.7%
$642,032 Объем
$642,032 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$15,952 Объем
80%
xAI
$126,437 Объем
7%
$22,178 Объем
6%
OpenAI
$60,817 Объем
3%
DeepSeek
$221,272 Объем
2%
Moonshot
$58,264 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$6,421 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$24,705 Объем
1%
ByteDance
$6,342 Объем
1%
Amazon
$25,742 Объем
1%
Mistral
$61,447 Объем
1%
Meituan
$5,935 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$6,536 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 79.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged lead since its February 2026 release, where it excels in reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks while minimizing stylistic biases. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid shipping cadence, including voice mode, persistent memory, and ChatGPT import features that surged app downloads and server demand last week. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (7%) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (5.5%) trail closely on Elo scores but lack displacement momentum, while OpenAI's GPT-5.x (2.7%) has faded amid benchmark shortfalls. Watch for unannounced rival model drops before resolution, as leaderboard volatility persists in this fast-evolving large language model race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Объем
$642,032Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 79.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged lead since its February 2026 release, where it excels in reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks while minimizing stylistic biases. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid shipping cadence, including voice mode, persistent memory, and ChatGPT import features that surged app downloads and server demand last week. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (7%) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (5.5%) trail closely on Elo scores but lack displacement momentum, while OpenAI's GPT-5.x (2.7%) has faded amid benchmark shortfalls. Watch for unannounced rival model drops before resolution, as leaderboard volatility persists in this fast-evolving large language model race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$642,032Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 79.5% implied probability to Anthropic retaining the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged lead since its February 2026 release, where it excels in reasoning, coding, and multi-turn tasks while minimizing stylistic biases. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid shipping cadence, including voice mode, persistent memory, and ChatGPT import features that surged app downloads and server demand last week. xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (7%) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (5.5%) trail closely on Elo scores but lack displacement momentum, while OpenAI's GPT-5.x (2.7%) has faded amid benchmark shortfalls. Watch for unannounced rival model drops before resolution, as leaderboard volatility persists in this fast-evolving large language model race.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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