Congressional inaction on AI safety legislation stems primarily from partisan divisions over enforcement mechanisms, state preemption, and the balance between mandatory standards versus voluntary industry frameworks, compounded by a compressed legislative calendar ahead of the November 2026 midterms. House Republican leaders have shelved major proposals, including the Great American AI Act and incident reporting measures, with no path to floor votes before the election. Multiple Senate drafts addressing catastrophic risks, transparency, and oversight boards remain stalled without finalized text or broad agreement, while the administration emphasizes voluntary approaches. Traders price the "no" outcome at 95.5% because any bill would need to clear both chambers and receive presidential approval in the brief post-election window. A sudden high-profile AI incident or post-midterm shift in priorities could still create limited momentum for narrower measures before January 2027.