State Rep. Steve Toth's upset victory over incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary has solidified the GOP nomination in solidly Republican Texas' 2nd Congressional District, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 88.5% to win the November 3 general election. The Houston-area battleground leans heavily Republican, with past cycles showing double-digit GOP margins amid strong turnout from conservative voters and weak Democratic performance. The Democratic nominee advanced unopposed in their primary but lacks fundraising or polling to challenge district fundamentals. Absent major scandals, nationalized midterms, or shifts in swing state turnout, historical base rates favor a Republican hold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоTX-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
TX-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
89%
Демократическая партия
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$3,068 Объем
89%
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).State Rep. Steve Toth's upset victory over incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary has solidified the GOP nomination in solidly Republican Texas' 2nd Congressional District, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 88.5% to win the November 3 general election. The Houston-area battleground leans heavily Republican, with past cycles showing double-digit GOP margins amid strong turnout from conservative voters and weak Democratic performance. The Democratic nominee advanced unopposed in their primary but lacks fundraising or polling to challenge district fundamentals. Absent major scandals, nationalized midterms, or shifts in swing state turnout, historical base rates favor a Republican hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$3,068Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).State Rep. Steve Toth's upset victory over incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary has solidified the GOP nomination in solidly Republican Texas' 2nd Congressional District, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 88.5% to win the November 3 general election. The Houston-area battleground leans heavily Republican, with past cycles showing double-digit GOP margins amid strong turnout from conservative voters and weak Democratic performance. The Democratic nominee advanced unopposed in their primary but lacks fundraising or polling to challenge district fundamentals. Absent major scandals, nationalized midterms, or shifts in swing state turnout, historical base rates favor a Republican hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$3,068Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...State Rep. Steve Toth's upset victory over incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary has solidified the GOP nomination in solidly Republican Texas' 2nd Congressional District, driving trader consensus to price Republicans at 88.5% to win the November 3 general election. The Houston-area battleground leans heavily Republican, with past cycles showing double-digit GOP margins amid strong turnout from conservative voters and weak Democratic performance. The Democratic nominee advanced unopposed in their primary but lacks fundraising or polling to challenge district fundamentals. Absent major scandals, nationalized midterms, or shifts in swing state turnout, historical base rates favor a Republican hold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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