United Russia's dominant trader consensus at 95.5% for the State Duma election winner reflects its entrenched control in Russia's mixed electoral system of 225 proportional list seats and 225 single-member constituencies, where it historically secures supermajorities despite list vote shares around 30-40% as in recent March 2026 FOM and WCIOM polls showing 29-41% support amid stable trends. Kremlin preparations, including a militarized candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev and featuring Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov plus Ukraine war veterans, bolster its position, while systemic opposition like CPRF and LDPR remains marginalized under intensified pressure and non-systemic challengers are excluded. Scenarios to challenge this include a sharp economic downturn from inflation eroding turnout, major Ukraine conflict setbacks sparking protests, or elite infighting disrupting cohesion before the September 18-20 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЕдиная Россия (ЕР) 95.5%
Гражданская платформа (ГП) 1.1%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ) 1.1%
Новые люди (НЛ) <1%
$892,513 Объем
$892,513 Объем
Sep 30, 2026
Единая Россия (ЕР)
96%
Гражданская платформа (ГП)
1%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ)
1%
Новые люди (НЛ)
1%
Либерально-демократическая партия России (ЛДПР)
1%
Справедливая Россия – За правду (СРЗП)
1%
Родина
<1%
Единая Россия (ЕР) 95.5%
Гражданская платформа (ГП) 1.1%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ) 1.1%
Новые люди (НЛ) <1%
$892,513 Объем
$892,513 Объем
Sep 30, 2026
Единая Россия (ЕР)
$469,691 Объем
96%
Гражданская платформа (ГП)
$76,298 Объем
1%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ)
$77,067 Объем
1%
Новые люди (НЛ)
$34,430 Объем
1%
Либерально-демократическая партия России (ЛДПР)
$31,464 Объем
1%
Справедливая Россия – За правду (СРЗП)
$128,752 Объем
1%
Родина
$74,810 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's dominant trader consensus at 95.5% for the State Duma election winner reflects its entrenched control in Russia's mixed electoral system of 225 proportional list seats and 225 single-member constituencies, where it historically secures supermajorities despite list vote shares around 30-40% as in recent March 2026 FOM and WCIOM polls showing 29-41% support amid stable trends. Kremlin preparations, including a militarized candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev and featuring Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov plus Ukraine war veterans, bolster its position, while systemic opposition like CPRF and LDPR remains marginalized under intensified pressure and non-systemic challengers are excluded. Scenarios to challenge this include a sharp economic downturn from inflation eroding turnout, major Ukraine conflict setbacks sparking protests, or elite infighting disrupting cohesion before the September 18-20 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Объем
$892,513Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's dominant trader consensus at 95.5% for the State Duma election winner reflects its entrenched control in Russia's mixed electoral system of 225 proportional list seats and 225 single-member constituencies, where it historically secures supermajorities despite list vote shares around 30-40% as in recent March 2026 FOM and WCIOM polls showing 29-41% support amid stable trends. Kremlin preparations, including a militarized candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev and featuring Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov plus Ukraine war veterans, bolster its position, while systemic opposition like CPRF and LDPR remains marginalized under intensified pressure and non-systemic challengers are excluded. Scenarios to challenge this include a sharp economic downturn from inflation eroding turnout, major Ukraine conflict setbacks sparking protests, or elite infighting disrupting cohesion before the September 18-20 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Объем
$892,513Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's dominant trader consensus at 95.5% for the State Duma election winner reflects its entrenched control in Russia's mixed electoral system of 225 proportional list seats and 225 single-member constituencies, where it historically secures supermajorities despite list vote shares around 30-40% as in recent March 2026 FOM and WCIOM polls showing 29-41% support amid stable trends. Kremlin preparations, including a militarized candidate list led by Dmitry Medvedev and featuring Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov plus Ukraine war veterans, bolster its position, while systemic opposition like CPRF and LDPR remains marginalized under intensified pressure and non-systemic challengers are excluded. Scenarios to challenge this include a sharp economic downturn from inflation eroding turnout, major Ukraine conflict setbacks sparking protests, or elite infighting disrupting cohesion before the September 18-20 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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