Traders price a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority in the 2026 midterms at just 2.2% likelihood, reflecting the steep structural barriers in the Senate Class 2 map where Republicans defend 20 seats against Democrats' 13 plus two independents. Achieving 60 seats would require net gains of at least seven from a projected post-2024 majority around 53, amid incumbency advantages, competitive battlegrounds like Maine and North Carolina, and historical rarity of supermajorities since the early 2000s. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this consensus, anchored in base rates and electoral math. Upside scenarios include a 2010-style GOP wave from Democratic scandals or turnout collapses, though such shifts remain improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
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Nov 3, 2026
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NEW
Nov 3, 2026
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Traders price a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority in the 2026 midterms at just 2.2% likelihood, reflecting the steep structural barriers in the Senate Class 2 map where Republicans defend 20 seats against Democrats' 13 plus two independents. Achieving 60 seats would require net gains of at least seven from a projected post-2024 majority around 53, amid incumbency advantages, competitive battlegrounds like Maine and North Carolina, and historical rarity of supermajorities since the early 2000s. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this consensus, anchored in base rates and electoral math. Upside scenarios include a 2010-style GOP wave from Democratic scandals or turnout collapses, though such shifts remain improbable.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Traders price a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority in the 2026 midterms at just 2.2% likelihood, reflecting the steep structural barriers in the Senate Class 2 map where Republicans defend 20 seats against Democrats' 13 plus two independents. Achieving 60 seats would require net gains of at least seven from a projected post-2024 majority around 53, amid incumbency advantages, competitive battlegrounds like Maine and North Carolina, and historical rarity of supermajorities since the early 2000s. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this consensus, anchored in base rates and electoral math. Upside scenarios include a 2010-style GOP wave from Democratic scandals or turnout collapses, though such shifts remain improbable.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority in the 2026 midterms at just 2.2% likelihood, reflecting the steep structural barriers in the Senate Class 2 map where Republicans defend 20 seats against Democrats' 13 plus two independents. Achieving 60 seats would require net gains of at least seven from a projected post-2024 majority around 53, amid incumbency advantages, competitive battlegrounds like Maine and North Carolina, and historical rarity of supermajorities since the early 2000s. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this consensus, anchored in base rates and electoral math. Upside scenarios include a 2010-style GOP wave from Democratic scandals or turnout collapses, though such shifts remain improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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