Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward an OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, pricing a 65.5% implied probability on no IPO amid the artificial intelligence leader's staggering cash burn—projected at $68 million daily this year, escalating to $200 million by 2028 and $665 billion cumulatively by 2030—despite not achieving profitability until 2029 or later. Recent developments, including a March 17 report of Q4 IPO preparations with a hired investor relations chief (ex-DocuSign CFO), a $10 billion funding top-up to a $110 billion round at $730 billion pre-money valuation, and SoftBank's $40 billion loan for its stake, signal groundwork but highlight risks like high 28x revenue multiples, Microsoft dependency flagged in investor docs, and product cuts such as Sora's shutdown for cost control. A Q4 filing remains possible, but regulatory hurdles from Elon Musk lawsuits and competitive pressures from Anthropic temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar valuations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЗакрытие IPO OpenAI Рыночная капитализация
Закрытие IPO OpenAI Рыночная капитализация
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2026 года 66%
1T–1.25T 11.5%
750 млрд–1 трлн 8.2%
<500 млрд 5.2%
$1,534,071 Объем
$1,534,071 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
<500 млрд
5%
500–750 млрд
3%
750 млрд–1 трлн
8%
1T–1.25T
12%
1,25–1,5 трлн долларов
5%
1.5T+
3%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2026 года
66%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2026 года 66%
1T–1.25T 11.5%
750 млрд–1 трлн 8.2%
<500 млрд 5.2%
$1,534,071 Объем
$1,534,071 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
<500 млрд
$255,378 Объем
5%
500–750 млрд
$137,378 Объем
3%
750 млрд–1 трлн
$128,445 Объем
8%
1T–1.25T
$170,995 Объем
12%
1,25–1,5 трлн долларов
$483,789 Объем
5%
1.5T+
$88,066 Объем
3%
Нет IPO до 31 декабря 2026 года
$270,019 Объем
66%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward an OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, pricing a 65.5% implied probability on no IPO amid the artificial intelligence leader's staggering cash burn—projected at $68 million daily this year, escalating to $200 million by 2028 and $665 billion cumulatively by 2030—despite not achieving profitability until 2029 or later. Recent developments, including a March 17 report of Q4 IPO preparations with a hired investor relations chief (ex-DocuSign CFO), a $10 billion funding top-up to a $110 billion round at $730 billion pre-money valuation, and SoftBank's $40 billion loan for its stake, signal groundwork but highlight risks like high 28x revenue multiples, Microsoft dependency flagged in investor docs, and product cuts such as Sora's shutdown for cost control. A Q4 filing remains possible, but regulatory hurdles from Elon Musk lawsuits and competitive pressures from Anthropic temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar valuations.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Объем
$1,534,071Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward an OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, pricing a 65.5% implied probability on no IPO amid the artificial intelligence leader's staggering cash burn—projected at $68 million daily this year, escalating to $200 million by 2028 and $665 billion cumulatively by 2030—despite not achieving profitability until 2029 or later. Recent developments, including a March 17 report of Q4 IPO preparations with a hired investor relations chief (ex-DocuSign CFO), a $10 billion funding top-up to a $110 billion round at $730 billion pre-money valuation, and SoftBank's $40 billion loan for its stake, signal groundwork but highlight risks like high 28x revenue multiples, Microsoft dependency flagged in investor docs, and product cuts such as Sora's shutdown for cost control. A Q4 filing remains possible, but regulatory hurdles from Elon Musk lawsuits and competitive pressures from Anthropic temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar valuations.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Объем
$1,534,071Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects skepticism toward an OpenAI initial public offering by December 31, 2026, pricing a 65.5% implied probability on no IPO amid the artificial intelligence leader's staggering cash burn—projected at $68 million daily this year, escalating to $200 million by 2028 and $665 billion cumulatively by 2030—despite not achieving profitability until 2029 or later. Recent developments, including a March 17 report of Q4 IPO preparations with a hired investor relations chief (ex-DocuSign CFO), a $10 billion funding top-up to a $110 billion round at $730 billion pre-money valuation, and SoftBank's $40 billion loan for its stake, signal groundwork but highlight risks like high 28x revenue multiples, Microsoft dependency flagged in investor docs, and product cuts such as Sora's shutdown for cost control. A Q4 filing remains possible, but regulatory hurdles from Elon Musk lawsuits and competitive pressures from Anthropic temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar valuations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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