Trader consensus assigns 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's deep Republican tilt (R+13 Cook PVI) and incumbent Tom Cole's 11-term stronghold bolstered by his Appropriations Committee chairmanship. Democrat Mary Elizabeth Fjen trails far behind in fundraising and visibility, with no competitive polling or endorsements shifting dynamics in the past 30 days. Absent fresh catalysts like a Republican scandal, Cole health issues, or an unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in this safe seat, odds align with historical incumbency advantages exceeding 95% reelection rates. The market awaits resolution post-November 5 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоOK-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
OK-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
93%
Демократическая партия
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
93%
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's deep Republican tilt (R+13 Cook PVI) and incumbent Tom Cole's 11-term stronghold bolstered by his Appropriations Committee chairmanship. Democrat Mary Elizabeth Fjen trails far behind in fundraising and visibility, with no competitive polling or endorsements shifting dynamics in the past 30 days. Absent fresh catalysts like a Republican scandal, Cole health issues, or an unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in this safe seat, odds align with historical incumbency advantages exceeding 95% reelection rates. The market awaits resolution post-November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's deep Republican tilt (R+13 Cook PVI) and incumbent Tom Cole's 11-term stronghold bolstered by his Appropriations Committee chairmanship. Democrat Mary Elizabeth Fjen trails far behind in fundraising and visibility, with no competitive polling or endorsements shifting dynamics in the past 30 days. Absent fresh catalysts like a Republican scandal, Cole health issues, or an unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in this safe seat, odds align with historical incumbency advantages exceeding 95% reelection rates. The market awaits resolution post-November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns 93.5% implied probability to the Republican Party in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's deep Republican tilt (R+13 Cook PVI) and incumbent Tom Cole's 11-term stronghold bolstered by his Appropriations Committee chairmanship. Democrat Mary Elizabeth Fjen trails far behind in fundraising and visibility, with no competitive polling or endorsements shifting dynamics in the past 30 days. Absent fresh catalysts like a Republican scandal, Cole health issues, or an unforeseen Democratic turnout surge in this safe seat, odds align with historical incumbency advantages exceeding 95% reelection rates. The market awaits resolution post-November 5 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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