Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by recent polling averages showing Tony Vargas leading incumbent Don Bacon by 4–7 points across aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Race to the WH. This Omaha-based swing district (Cook PVI EVEN) has trended Democratic since Vargas's narrow 2022 upset, with fresh momentum from strong early voting turnout among urban and suburban voters, plus national headwinds for Republicans on abortion and economic issues. Bacon's incumbency advantage persists but is offset by Vargas's fundraising edge and endorsements from local unions. With Election Day on November 5, any late shifts in mail ballots or turnout could narrow the race, though structural factors like Nebraska's split-electoral-vote system add no direct impact here.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNE-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NE-02 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
81%
Республиканская партия
18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
81%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by recent polling averages showing Tony Vargas leading incumbent Don Bacon by 4–7 points across aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Race to the WH. This Omaha-based swing district (Cook PVI EVEN) has trended Democratic since Vargas's narrow 2022 upset, with fresh momentum from strong early voting turnout among urban and suburban voters, plus national headwinds for Republicans on abortion and economic issues. Bacon's incumbency advantage persists but is offset by Vargas's fundraising edge and endorsements from local unions. With Election Day on November 5, any late shifts in mail ballots or turnout could narrow the race, though structural factors like Nebraska's split-electoral-vote system add no direct impact here.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by recent polling averages showing Tony Vargas leading incumbent Don Bacon by 4–7 points across aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Race to the WH. This Omaha-based swing district (Cook PVI EVEN) has trended Democratic since Vargas's narrow 2022 upset, with fresh momentum from strong early voting turnout among urban and suburban voters, plus national headwinds for Republicans on abortion and economic issues. Bacon's incumbency advantage persists but is offset by Vargas's fundraising edge and endorsements from local unions. With Election Day on November 5, any late shifts in mail ballots or turnout could narrow the race, though structural factors like Nebraska's split-electoral-vote system add no direct impact here.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 82% implied probability to win Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by recent polling averages showing Tony Vargas leading incumbent Don Bacon by 4–7 points across aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Race to the WH. This Omaha-based swing district (Cook PVI EVEN) has trended Democratic since Vargas's narrow 2022 upset, with fresh momentum from strong early voting turnout among urban and suburban voters, plus national headwinds for Republicans on abortion and economic issues. Bacon's incumbency advantage persists but is offset by Vargas's fundraising edge and endorsements from local unions. With Election Day on November 5, any late shifts in mail ballots or turnout could narrow the race, though structural factors like Nebraska's split-electoral-vote system add no direct impact here.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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