Montana's 2nd Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its eastern geography and voting history, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Troy Downing secured the seat in 2024 with 65.7 percent of the vote, establishing a baseline advantage that forecasters at Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate as solid or safe Republican. The June 2 Republican primary features limited opposition, while Democratic contenders remain underfunded and untested in a district where turnout patterns favor the majority party. Traders have priced this structural edge into a 92.5 percent implied probability for a Republican general-election victory on November 3, 2026. A national Democratic surge or unexpected primary upset could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability shifts given the district's entrenched partisan alignment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-02
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-02
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
93%
Демократическая партия
7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$6,411 Объем
93%
Демократическая партия
$2,914 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana's 2nd Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its eastern geography and voting history, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Troy Downing secured the seat in 2024 with 65.7 percent of the vote, establishing a baseline advantage that forecasters at Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate as solid or safe Republican. The June 2 Republican primary features limited opposition, while Democratic contenders remain underfunded and untested in a district where turnout patterns favor the majority party. Traders have priced this structural edge into a 92.5 percent implied probability for a Republican general-election victory on November 3, 2026. A national Democratic surge or unexpected primary upset could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability shifts given the district's entrenched partisan alignment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$9,324Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana's 2nd Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its eastern geography and voting history, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Troy Downing secured the seat in 2024 with 65.7 percent of the vote, establishing a baseline advantage that forecasters at Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate as solid or safe Republican. The June 2 Republican primary features limited opposition, while Democratic contenders remain underfunded and untested in a district where turnout patterns favor the majority party. Traders have priced this structural edge into a 92.5 percent implied probability for a Republican general-election victory on November 3, 2026. A national Democratic surge or unexpected primary upset could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability shifts given the district's entrenched partisan alignment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$9,324Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's 2nd Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt rooted in its eastern geography and voting history, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+15 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Troy Downing secured the seat in 2024 with 65.7 percent of the vote, establishing a baseline advantage that forecasters at Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate as solid or safe Republican. The June 2 Republican primary features limited opposition, while Democratic contenders remain underfunded and untested in a district where turnout patterns favor the majority party. Traders have priced this structural edge into a 92.5 percent implied probability for a Republican general-election victory on November 3, 2026. A national Democratic surge or unexpected primary upset could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability shifts given the district's entrenched partisan alignment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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