Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a strong position in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District due to its Republican lean (R+6 PVI) and his 2024 reelection margin of 17 points in a district Donald Trump carried by double digits. Democratic challenger Jake Johnson, a Rochester math teacher and first-time candidate who won his August primary, has narrowed the gap in some surveys through intensive county-by-county outreach and criticism of Finstad’s record on taxes, tariffs, and Medicaid. Both campaigns have increased advertising and fundraising, with a televised forum set for October 8 and outside spending from national groups. Race raters classify the contest as Likely or Lean Republican, reflecting the district’s fundamentals despite Democratic targeting and occasional polling volatility.