Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward 19°C as the frontrunner for Madrid's highest temperature on March 16, with implied probabilities reflecting a 77.5% market edge amid mild spring conditions. Recent AEMET updates and model runs indicate highs of 19-21°C under persistent high-pressure systems channeling warm Atlantic air, aligning with Madrid's March climatology where averages hover near 16°C but anomalies push toward 20°C in 40% of recent years. Ensemble spreads show low uncertainty (±2°C), though diurnal variations and cloud cover could tip outcomes; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 16 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Мадриде 16 марта?
19°C 100.0%
13°C или ниже <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$326 Объем
$326 Объем
13°C или ниже
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Нет
17°C
Нет
18°C
Нет
19°C
Да
20°C
Нет
21°C
Нет
22°C
Нет
23°C или выше
Нет
19°C 100.0%
13°C или ниже <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$326 Объем
$326 Объем
13°C или ниже
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Нет
17°C
Нет
18°C
Нет
19°C
Да
20°C
Нет
21°C
Нет
22°C
Нет
23°C или выше
Нет
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward 19°C as the frontrunner for Madrid's highest temperature on March 16, with implied probabilities reflecting a 77.5% market edge amid mild spring conditions. Recent AEMET updates and model runs indicate highs of 19-21°C under persistent high-pressure systems channeling warm Atlantic air, aligning with Madrid's March climatology where averages hover near 16°C but anomalies push toward 20°C in 40% of recent years. Ensemble spreads show low uncertainty (±2°C), though diurnal variations and cloud cover could tip outcomes; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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