Polymarket traders' 97.6% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting reflects strong consensus following the March decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, despite February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 and rising unemployment. Steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, coupled with Chair Powell's recent emphasis on upside inflation risks from geopolitical tensions like energy price spikes tied to Iran conflicts, has tempered cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities near 95%. Realistic challenges include a softer-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or further labor market deterioration, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 basis points decrease.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРешение ФРС в апреле?
Решение ФРС в апреле?
Без изменений 97.6%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов 1.0%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более <1%
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов <1%
$41,141,050 Объем
$41,141,050 Объем
29 апр. 2026 г.
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов
<1%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов
1%
Без изменений
98%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более
1%
Без изменений 97.6%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов 1.0%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более <1%
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов <1%
$41,141,050 Объем
$41,141,050 Объем
29 апр. 2026 г.
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов
$14,629,466 Объем
<1%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов
$8,348,050 Объем
1%
Без изменений
$8,527,303 Объем
98%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более
$9,636,655 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 97.6% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting reflects strong consensus following the March decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, despite February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 and rising unemployment. Steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, coupled with Chair Powell's recent emphasis on upside inflation risks from geopolitical tensions like energy price spikes tied to Iran conflicts, has tempered cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities near 95%. Realistic challenges include a softer-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or further labor market deterioration, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 basis points decrease.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Объем
$41,141,050Дата окончания
29 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 97.6% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting reflects strong consensus following the March decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, despite February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 and rising unemployment. Steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, coupled with Chair Powell's recent emphasis on upside inflation risks from geopolitical tensions like energy price spikes tied to Iran conflicts, has tempered cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities near 95%. Realistic challenges include a softer-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or further labor market deterioration, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 basis points decrease.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$41,141,050Дата окончания
29 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' 97.6% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting reflects strong consensus following the March decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, despite February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 and rising unemployment. Steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, coupled with Chair Powell's recent emphasis on upside inflation risks from geopolitical tensions like energy price spikes tied to Iran conflicts, has tempered cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities near 95%. Realistic challenges include a softer-than-expected March CPI release on April 10 or further labor market deterioration, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 basis points decrease.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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