Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom meeting on April 28-29, following the committee's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18—the first easing move after prior holds amid disinflation. This shift reflects March IPCA-15 data showing annual inflation slowing to 3.9%, the lowest since mid-2024, despite an oil shock from Middle East tensions prompting a more cautious pace than the market's 50 basis point expectation. No change trades at 15.5% to hedge persistent upside inflation risks, with an increase near zero as policy pivots toward normalization; full March IPCA data due mid-April could sway sentiment further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСнижение 85%
Без изменений 16%
Увеличение <1%
$195,943 Объем
$195,943 Объем
Увеличение
1%
Без изменений
16%
Снижение
85%
Снижение 85%
Без изменений 16%
Увеличение <1%
$195,943 Объем
$195,943 Объем
Увеличение
1%
Без изменений
16%
Снижение
85%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's Copom meeting on April 28-29, following the committee's unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75% on March 18—the first easing move after prior holds amid disinflation. This shift reflects March IPCA-15 data showing annual inflation slowing to 3.9%, the lowest since mid-2024, despite an oil shock from Middle East tensions prompting a more cautious pace than the market's 50 basis point expectation. No change trades at 15.5% to hedge persistent upside inflation risks, with an increase near zero as policy pivots toward normalization; full March IPCA data due mid-April could sway sentiment further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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