Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, reflecting the initiation of an easing cycle with the March 18 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first after five holds at 15%—amid February IPCA inflation cooling to 3.81% year-over-year, the lowest since April 2024. Slowing GDP growth to 2.3% in 2025 and softening labor market conditions bolster rate cut expectations, despite a March IPCA monthly rise of 0.44% above forecasts from oil shocks, elevating 2026 end-point projections to 4.1%. No-change odds at 15% capture caution over fiscal risks, while hikes remain negligible at 0.7%; traders eye April IPCA data for final positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСнижение 85%
Без изменений 15%
Увеличение <1%
$195,943 Объем
$195,943 Объем
Увеличение
1%
Без изменений
15%
Снижение
85%
Снижение 85%
Без изменений 15%
Увеличение <1%
$195,943 Объем
$195,943 Объем
Увеличение
1%
Без изменений
15%
Снижение
85%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85% implied probability of a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil's (BCB) April Copom meeting, reflecting the initiation of an easing cycle with the March 18 unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—the first after five holds at 15%—amid February IPCA inflation cooling to 3.81% year-over-year, the lowest since April 2024. Slowing GDP growth to 2.3% in 2025 and softening labor market conditions bolster rate cut expectations, despite a March IPCA monthly rise of 0.44% above forecasts from oil shocks, elevating 2026 end-point projections to 4.1%. No-change odds at 15% capture caution over fiscal risks, while hikes remain negligible at 0.7%; traders eye April IPCA data for final positioning.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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