Market icon
Política·Venezuela

Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?

Market icon
Política·Venezuela

Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?

Sim

21% acaso
Polymarket

$1,262,770 Vol.

Sim

21% acaso
Polymarket

$1,262,770 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, driven by explicit denials from top U.S. military leaders, including a March 19 statement from a senior general that no rehearsals or preparations for takeover are underway. Recent escalations center on Trump's January executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's hosting of adversarial military assets and human rights abuses, coupled with an oil blockade exacerbating island blackouts and scarcities, yet these remain economic pressures without kinetic shifts. Cuban officials' warnings of military readiness, U.S. public polls showing majority opposition to force for regime change, and Democratic legislative efforts to restrict actions underscore high barriers, diverting focus to Iran and Venezuela amid stretched resources.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$1,262,770
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 79% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, driven by explicit denials from top U.S. military leaders, including a March 19 statement from a senior general that no rehearsals or preparations for takeover are underway. Recent escalations center on Trump's January executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba's hosting of adversarial military assets and human rights abuses, coupled with an oil blockade exacerbating island blackouts and scarcities, yet these remain economic pressures without kinetic shifts. Cuban officials' warnings of military readiness, U.S. public polls showing majority opposition to force for regime change, and Democratic legislative efforts to restrict actions underscore high barriers, diverting focus to Iran and Venezuela amid stretched resources.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$1,262,770
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" is "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA vão invadir Cuba em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.