Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, driven by enduring bilateral security cooperation amid counternarcotics efforts despite rhetorical tensions between Presidents Trump and Petro. Recent U.S. assurances to Petro on March 31 against pursuing charges, coupled with a joint U.S.-Colombia maritime partnership ceremony days ago involving Marines and naval forces, underscore alliance continuity following February's White House meeting that eased frictions over drugs and Venezuela. Limited cross-border strikes by U.S. special forces from Ecuador targeting narcos along the frontier—such as Operation Total Extermination on March 6—reflect targeted operations, not invasion preparations. Colombia's May presidential elections loom as a potential stabilizer, with historical precedent favoring partnership over military intervention absent a major casus belli.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$24,853 Vol.
$24,853 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$24,853 Vol.
$24,853 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, driven by enduring bilateral security cooperation amid counternarcotics efforts despite rhetorical tensions between Presidents Trump and Petro. Recent U.S. assurances to Petro on March 31 against pursuing charges, coupled with a joint U.S.-Colombia maritime partnership ceremony days ago involving Marines and naval forces, underscore alliance continuity following February's White House meeting that eased frictions over drugs and Venezuela. Limited cross-border strikes by U.S. special forces from Ecuador targeting narcos along the frontier—such as Operation Total Extermination on March 6—reflect targeted operations, not invasion preparations. Colombia's May presidential elections loom as a potential stabilizer, with historical precedent favoring partnership over military intervention absent a major casus belli.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$24,853Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, driven by enduring bilateral security cooperation amid counternarcotics efforts despite rhetorical tensions between Presidents Trump and Petro. Recent U.S. assurances to Petro on March 31 against pursuing charges, coupled with a joint U.S.-Colombia maritime partnership ceremony days ago involving Marines and naval forces, underscore alliance continuity following February's White House meeting that eased frictions over drugs and Venezuela. Limited cross-border strikes by U.S. special forces from Ecuador targeting narcos along the frontier—such as Operation Total Extermination on March 6—reflect targeted operations, not invasion preparations. Colombia's May presidential elections loom as a potential stabilizer, with historical precedent favoring partnership over military intervention absent a major casus belli.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,853Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, driven by enduring bilateral security cooperation amid counternarcotics efforts despite rhetorical tensions between Presidents Trump and Petro. Recent U.S. assurances to Petro on March 31 against pursuing charges, coupled with a joint U.S.-Colombia maritime partnership ceremony days ago involving Marines and naval forces, underscore alliance continuity following February's White House meeting that eased frictions over drugs and Venezuela. Limited cross-border strikes by U.S. special forces from Ecuador targeting narcos along the frontier—such as Operation Total Extermination on March 6—reflect targeted operations, not invasion preparations. Colombia's May presidential elections loom as a potential stabilizer, with historical precedent favoring partnership over military intervention absent a major casus belli.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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