Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of any full-scale ground invasion amid the Trump administration's aggressive anti-cartel posture. A January 3 targeted military strike in Venezuela captured Nicolás Maduro but was limited to special operations without occupation, setting a precedent for precision actions over broad interventions. Recent developments, including U.S. support for Ecuadorian raids against terrorist-designated cartels on March 3, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warnings of unilateral operations if allies falter, and the March 7 Shield of the Americas summit forging a multinational coalition, signal escalation rhetoric but prioritize diplomacy and joint efforts. With nine months remaining, diplomatic pushback and high costs of full invasion maintain trader skepticism for major military action.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$195,195 Vol.
$195,195 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$195,195 Vol.
$195,195 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of any full-scale ground invasion amid the Trump administration's aggressive anti-cartel posture. A January 3 targeted military strike in Venezuela captured Nicolás Maduro but was limited to special operations without occupation, setting a precedent for precision actions over broad interventions. Recent developments, including U.S. support for Ecuadorian raids against terrorist-designated cartels on March 3, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warnings of unilateral operations if allies falter, and the March 7 Shield of the Americas summit forging a multinational coalition, signal escalation rhetoric but prioritize diplomacy and joint efforts. With nine months remaining, diplomatic pushback and high costs of full invasion maintain trader skepticism for major military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$195,195Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of any full-scale ground invasion amid the Trump administration's aggressive anti-cartel posture. A January 3 targeted military strike in Venezuela captured Nicolás Maduro but was limited to special operations without occupation, setting a precedent for precision actions over broad interventions. Recent developments, including U.S. support for Ecuadorian raids against terrorist-designated cartels on March 3, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warnings of unilateral operations if allies falter, and the March 7 Shield of the Americas summit forging a multinational coalition, signal escalation rhetoric but prioritize diplomacy and joint efforts. With nine months remaining, diplomatic pushback and high costs of full invasion maintain trader skepticism for major military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$195,195Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 76.5% implied probability for a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026, reflecting the absence of any full-scale ground invasion amid the Trump administration's aggressive anti-cartel posture. A January 3 targeted military strike in Venezuela captured Nicolás Maduro but was limited to special operations without occupation, setting a precedent for precision actions over broad interventions. Recent developments, including U.S. support for Ecuadorian raids against terrorist-designated cartels on March 3, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's warnings of unilateral operations if allies falter, and the March 7 Shield of the Americas summit forging a multinational coalition, signal escalation rhetoric but prioritize diplomacy and joint efforts. With nine months remaining, diplomatic pushback and high costs of full invasion maintain trader skepticism for major military action.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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