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Geopolítica·Putin

A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Putin

A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$51,377 Vol.

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$51,377 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing grinding war in Ukraine, marked by intensified occupation efforts in seized territories and a planned recruitment of 409,000 troops for 2026 advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potential pushes toward Odesa, has drained military resources and precluded new invasions, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against expansion to another country. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Moscow's focus remains on completing objectives within Ukraine, with recent spring offensives, over 400-drone barrages on March 24, and no verified troop buildups near NATO borders like the Baltics or Moldova. NATO's defensive enhancements, including pipeline extensions for fuel resilience, further deter aggression. While unverified predictions like Bild's May Baltic scenario circulate, low odds reflect substantial barriers from sanctions, losses, and diplomatic stalemates, though late-year escalations or US-Iran distractions could shift dynamics.

Russia's ongoing grinding war in Ukraine, marked by intensified occupation efforts in seized territories and a planned recruitment of 409,000 troops for 2026 advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potential pushes toward Odesa, has drained military resources and precluded new invasions, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against expansion to another country. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Moscow's focus remains on completing objectives within Ukraine, with recent spring offensives, over 400-drone barrages on March 24, and no verified troop buildups near NATO borders like the Baltics or Moldova. NATO's defensive enhancements, including pipeline extensions for fuel resilience, further deter aggression. While unverified predictions like Bild's May Baltic scenario circulate, low odds reflect substantial barriers from sanctions, losses, and diplomatic stalemates, though late-year escalations or US-Iran distractions could shift dynamics.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing grinding war in Ukraine, marked by intensified occupation efforts in seized territories and a planned recruitment of 409,000 troops for 2026 advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potential pushes toward Odesa, has drained military resources and precluded new invasions, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against expansion to another country. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Moscow's focus remains on completing objectives within Ukraine, with recent spring offensives, over 400-drone barrages on March 24, and no verified troop buildups near NATO borders like the Baltics or Moldova. NATO's defensive enhancements, including pipeline extensions for fuel resilience, further deter aggression. While unverified predictions like Bild's May Baltic scenario circulate, low odds reflect substantial barriers from sanctions, losses, and diplomatic stalemates, though late-year escalations or US-Iran distractions could shift dynamics.

Russia's ongoing grinding war in Ukraine, marked by intensified occupation efforts in seized territories and a planned recruitment of 409,000 troops for 2026 advances in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potential pushes toward Odesa, has drained military resources and precluded new invasions, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against expansion to another country. Ukrainian intelligence confirms Moscow's focus remains on completing objectives within Ukraine, with recent spring offensives, over 400-drone barrages on March 24, and no verified troop buildups near NATO borders like the Baltics or Moldova. NATO's defensive enhancements, including pipeline extensions for fuel resilience, further deter aggression. While unverified predictions like Bild's May Baltic scenario circulate, low odds reflect substantial barriers from sanctions, losses, and diplomatic stalemates, though late-year escalations or US-Iran distractions could shift dynamics.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" has generated $51.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" is "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.