The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification of warhead safety and reliability. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Defense Department to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield supercritical experiments by those states. Administration officials subsequently clarified that initial activities would focus on subcritical or non-explosive system tests rather than yield-producing detonations. Technical preparations for a full underground test at the Nevada National Security Site are estimated at 24–36 months. As of mid-2026, the latest annual stockpile assessment reaffirmed no technical requirement for explosive testing, though internal planning references execution of the directive by the end of 2028. Key variables include Senate appropriations for the National Nuclear Security Administration, any new compliance reports on foreign activities, and diplomatic responses to potential U.S. actions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear dos EUA por...?
Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?
$770,068 Vol.
29 set 2026
30 de setembro de 2026
1%
31 de dezembro de 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
30 de setembro de 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 de dezembro de 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification of warhead safety and reliability. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Defense Department to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield supercritical experiments by those states. Administration officials subsequently clarified that initial activities would focus on subcritical or non-explosive system tests rather than yield-producing detonations. Technical preparations for a full underground test at the Nevada National Security Site are estimated at 24–36 months. As of mid-2026, the latest annual stockpile assessment reaffirmed no technical requirement for explosive testing, though internal planning references execution of the directive by the end of 2028. Key variables include Senate appropriations for the National Nuclear Security Administration, any new compliance reports on foreign activities, and diplomatic responses to potential U.S. actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification of warhead safety and reliability. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Defense Department to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield supercritical experiments by those states. Administration officials subsequently clarified that initial activities would focus on subcritical or non-explosive system tests rather than yield-producing detonations. Technical preparations for a full underground test at the Nevada National Security Site are estimated at 24–36 months. As of mid-2026, the latest annual stockpile assessment reaffirmed no technical requirement for explosive testing, though internal planning references execution of the directive by the end of 2028. Key variables include Senate appropriations for the National Nuclear Security Administration, any new compliance reports on foreign activities, and diplomatic responses to potential U.S. actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification of warhead safety and reliability. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Defense Department to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield supercritical experiments by those states. Administration officials subsequently clarified that initial activities would focus on subcritical or non-explosive system tests rather than yield-producing detonations. Technical preparations for a full underground test at the Nevada National Security Site are estimated at 24–36 months. As of mid-2026, the latest annual stockpile assessment reaffirmed no technical requirement for explosive testing, though internal planning references execution of the directive by the end of 2028. Key variables include Senate appropriations for the National Nuclear Security Administration, any new compliance reports on foreign activities, and diplomatic responses to potential U.S. actions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions