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icon for Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?

Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?

icon for Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?

Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?

$667,383 Vol.

30 jun 2026
Polymarket

$667,383 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de junho de 2026

$40,037 Vol.

2%

30 de setembro de 2026

$6,655 Vol.

5%

31 de dezembro de 2026

$10,472 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$667,383
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$667,383
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at 9%, followed by "30 de setembro de 2026" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?" has generated $667.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?" is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at just 9%, with "30 de setembro de 2026" close behind at 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Teste nuclear dos EUA por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.