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Teste nuclear da Rússia por...?

icon for Teste nuclear da Rússia por...?

Teste nuclear da Rússia por...?

$1,355,665 Vol.

30 jun 2026
Polymarket

$1,355,665 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de junho de 2026

$9,142 Vol.

2%

30 de setembro de 2026

$7,263 Vol.

5%

31 de dezembro de 2026

$14,686 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests despite revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and ordering proposals in November 2025 for potential resumption in response to U.S. President Trump's signals of resuming American testing after New START's February 2026 expiration. No verified nuclear explosion has occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests amid U.S. accusations against China. The most recent development is Russia's May 6 announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura site in Kamchatka through May 10, ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade, signaling escalation rhetoric but not a full test. Traders price low probabilities reflecting historical restraint and diplomatic risks, with ongoing Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Russia tensions as key variables.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,355,665
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on explosive nuclear tests despite revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 and ordering proposals in November 2025 for potential resumption in response to U.S. President Trump's signals of resuming American testing after New START's February 2026 expiration. No verified nuclear explosion has occurred, with the Kremlin denying secret tests amid U.S. accusations against China. The most recent development is Russia's May 6 announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura site in Kamchatka through May 10, ahead of the May 9 Victory Day parade, signaling escalation rhetoric but not a full test. Traders price low probabilities reflecting historical restraint and diplomatic risks, with ongoing Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Russia tensions as key variables.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,355,665
Data de Término
31 mar 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Teste nuclear da Rússia por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at 8%, followed by "30 de setembro de 2026" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Teste nuclear da Rússia por...?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Teste nuclear da Rússia por...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Teste nuclear da Rússia por...?" is "31 de dezembro de 2026" at just 8%, with "30 de setembro de 2026" close behind at 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Teste nuclear da Rússia por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.