Russia has adhered to a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium since its last full-yield detonation in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, despite signing but not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, eliminated remaining strategic limits between the US and Russia, raising escalation risks amid the Ukraine conflict, but no verified preparations or announcements for resuming tests have surfaced in the past 30 days. Recent developments include a failed ICBM test launch on March 27 and nuclear forces drills in Siberia reported April 2, alongside planned 2026 solid-fuel ICBM flights—none involving nuclear explosions. Traders watch for seismic signals from test sites, diplomatic rhetoric, or Ukraine battlefield shifts that could prompt de-escalation or provocation, with international monitoring by the CTBTO adding transparency.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$1,324,793 Vol.
30 jun 2026
30 de junho de 2026
2%
September 30, 2026
9%
31 de dezembro de 2026
12%
$1,324,793 Vol.
30 de junho de 2026
$100 Vol.
2%
September 30, 2026
$60 Vol.
9%
31 de dezembro de 2026
$60 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has adhered to a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium since its last full-yield detonation in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, despite signing but not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, eliminated remaining strategic limits between the US and Russia, raising escalation risks amid the Ukraine conflict, but no verified preparations or announcements for resuming tests have surfaced in the past 30 days. Recent developments include a failed ICBM test launch on March 27 and nuclear forces drills in Siberia reported April 2, alongside planned 2026 solid-fuel ICBM flights—none involving nuclear explosions. Traders watch for seismic signals from test sites, diplomatic rhetoric, or Ukraine battlefield shifts that could prompt de-escalation or provocation, with international monitoring by the CTBTO adding transparency.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,324,793Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has adhered to a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium since its last full-yield detonation in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, despite signing but not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, eliminated remaining strategic limits between the US and Russia, raising escalation risks amid the Ukraine conflict, but no verified preparations or announcements for resuming tests have surfaced in the past 30 days. Recent developments include a failed ICBM test launch on March 27 and nuclear forces drills in Siberia reported April 2, alongside planned 2026 solid-fuel ICBM flights—none involving nuclear explosions. Traders watch for seismic signals from test sites, diplomatic rhetoric, or Ukraine battlefield shifts that could prompt de-escalation or provocation, with international monitoring by the CTBTO adding transparency.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,324,793Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has adhered to a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium since its last full-yield detonation in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, despite signing but not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. The New START treaty's expiration on February 5, 2026, eliminated remaining strategic limits between the US and Russia, raising escalation risks amid the Ukraine conflict, but no verified preparations or announcements for resuming tests have surfaced in the past 30 days. Recent developments include a failed ICBM test launch on March 27 and nuclear forces drills in Siberia reported April 2, alongside planned 2026 solid-fuel ICBM flights—none involving nuclear explosions. Traders watch for seismic signals from test sites, diplomatic rhetoric, or Ukraine battlefield shifts that could prompt de-escalation or provocation, with international monitoring by the CTBTO adding transparency.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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