Market icon
Geopolítica·Putin

A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Putin

A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$51,377 Vol.

Sim

13% chance
Polymarket

$51,377 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by a bloody stalemate with over 1.2 million casualties by early 2026 and minimal territorial gains, has severely strained its forces and resources, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against a new invasion this year. Recent Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian plans targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa regions through 2027, with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi noting preparations to recruit 409,000 more troops focused on that front. President Putin's December statements explicitly rejected attacks on NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, while March ISW assessments highlight sustained pressure along Ukraine's frontline amid no observed buildups elsewhere. Speculative warnings of Baltic incursions remain unverified amid hybrid tactics, reinforcing the view that Moscow lacks capacity for another full-scale operation before year-end.

Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by a bloody stalemate with over 1.2 million casualties by early 2026 and minimal territorial gains, has severely strained its forces and resources, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against a new invasion this year. Recent Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian plans targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa regions through 2027, with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi noting preparations to recruit 409,000 more troops focused on that front. President Putin's December statements explicitly rejected attacks on NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, while March ISW assessments highlight sustained pressure along Ukraine's frontline amid no observed buildups elsewhere. Speculative warnings of Baltic incursions remain unverified amid hybrid tactics, reinforcing the view that Moscow lacks capacity for another full-scale operation before year-end.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by a bloody stalemate with over 1.2 million casualties by early 2026 and minimal territorial gains, has severely strained its forces and resources, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against a new invasion this year. Recent Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian plans targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa regions through 2027, with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi noting preparations to recruit 409,000 more troops focused on that front. President Putin's December statements explicitly rejected attacks on NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, while March ISW assessments highlight sustained pressure along Ukraine's frontline amid no observed buildups elsewhere. Speculative warnings of Baltic incursions remain unverified amid hybrid tactics, reinforcing the view that Moscow lacks capacity for another full-scale operation before year-end.

Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by a bloody stalemate with over 1.2 million casualties by early 2026 and minimal territorial gains, has severely strained its forces and resources, anchoring trader consensus at 87% against a new invasion this year. Recent Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian plans targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa regions through 2027, with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi noting preparations to recruit 409,000 more troops focused on that front. President Putin's December statements explicitly rejected attacks on NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, while March ISW assessments highlight sustained pressure along Ukraine's frontline amid no observed buildups elsewhere. Speculative warnings of Baltic incursions remain unverified amid hybrid tactics, reinforcing the view that Moscow lacks capacity for another full-scale operation before year-end.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" has generated $51.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" is "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "A Rússia invadirá outro país em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.