Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel

Israel reabrirá a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel

Israel reabrirá a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?

Sim

11% acaso
Polymarket

$21,226 Vol.

Sim

11% acaso
Polymarket

$21,226 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Intensified US-Israel military strikes on Iran since late February 2026, including attacks on infrastructure and the reported killing of Iran's supreme leader, have driven trader consensus to an 89% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Tehran this year. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israeli cities like Dimona near its nuclear facility, escalating the shadow war into open conflict amid vows of further "crushing" attacks. Absent diplomatic relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Israel's view of Iran as an existential threat—fueled by nuclear ambitions and proxy support for Hezbollah and Hamas—reinforces the unlikelihood of normalization, with no official talks or de-escalation signals amid UN warnings of wider regional war.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,226
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Intensified US-Israel military strikes on Iran since late February 2026, including attacks on infrastructure and the reported killing of Iran's supreme leader, have driven trader consensus to an 89% implied probability against Israel reopening its embassy in Tehran this year. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israeli cities like Dimona near its nuclear facility, escalating the shadow war into open conflict amid vows of further "crushing" attacks. Absent diplomatic relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Israel's view of Iran as an existential threat—fueled by nuclear ambitions and proxy support for Hezbollah and Hamas—reinforces the unlikelihood of normalization, with no official talks or de-escalation signals amid UN warnings of wider regional war.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,226
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel reabrirá a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Israel reabrirá sua embaixada no Irã em 2026?" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel reabrirá a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?" has generated $21.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel reabrirá a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel reabrirá a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?" is "Israel reabrirá sua embaixada no Irã em 2026?" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel reabrirá a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.