The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, assessed that China does not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 and lacks a fixed unification timeline, citing high economic costs and military readiness gaps as deterrents; this report has anchored trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" by September 30. Recent PLA air incursions resumed in mid-March after a lull but remain below peak levels, signaling pressure rather than invasion preparations amid U.S. distractions like Middle East tensions. Beijing's steady but uneven progress on amphibious capabilities underscores significant barriers, with no observable escalation in troop mobilizations or logistics buildup in the past 30 days to justify higher odds. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or domestic crises could still move markets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$135,529 Vol.
$135,529 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sim
$135,529 Vol.
$135,529 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, assessed that China does not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 and lacks a fixed unification timeline, citing high economic costs and military readiness gaps as deterrents; this report has anchored trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" by September 30. Recent PLA air incursions resumed in mid-March after a lull but remain below peak levels, signaling pressure rather than invasion preparations amid U.S. distractions like Middle East tensions. Beijing's steady but uneven progress on amphibious capabilities underscores significant barriers, with no observable escalation in troop mobilizations or logistics buildup in the past 30 days to justify higher odds. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or domestic crises could still move markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$135,529Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, assessed that China does not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 and lacks a fixed unification timeline, citing high economic costs and military readiness gaps as deterrents; this report has anchored trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" by September 30. Recent PLA air incursions resumed in mid-March after a lull but remain below peak levels, signaling pressure rather than invasion preparations amid U.S. distractions like Middle East tensions. Beijing's steady but uneven progress on amphibious capabilities underscores significant barriers, with no observable escalation in troop mobilizations or logistics buildup in the past 30 days to justify higher odds. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or domestic crises could still move markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$135,529Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released March 18, assessed that China does not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 and lacks a fixed unification timeline, citing high economic costs and military readiness gaps as deterrents; this report has anchored trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" by September 30. Recent PLA air incursions resumed in mid-March after a lull but remain below peak levels, signaling pressure rather than invasion preparations amid U.S. distractions like Middle East tensions. Beijing's steady but uneven progress on amphibious capabilities underscores significant barriers, with no observable escalation in troop mobilizations or logistics buildup in the past 30 days to justify higher odds. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or domestic crises could still move markets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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