Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting stable diplomatic relations amid the absence of recent escalations to that level. In March 2026, U.S.-South Africa tensions peaked when Washington declared South Africa's ambassador Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata over critical remarks, prompting expulsion calls in Pretoria against U.S. envoy Leo Brent Bozell III, yet South Africa refrained from action, de-escalating the spat. Iran's IRGC floated incentives for Arab or European nations to expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors to gain Strait of Hormuz passage, but no country followed through. With eight months remaining and no active diplomatic crises signaling breakdowns—such as formal protests, sanctions, or alliance ruptures—traders see low risk of rare persona non grata declarations before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting stable diplomatic relations amid the absence of recent escalations to that level. In March 2026, U.S.-South Africa tensions peaked when Washington declared South Africa's ambassador Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata over critical remarks, prompting expulsion calls in Pretoria against U.S. envoy Leo Brent Bozell III, yet South Africa refrained from action, de-escalating the spat. Iran's IRGC floated incentives for Arab or European nations to expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors to gain Strait of Hormuz passage, but no country followed through. With eight months remaining and no active diplomatic crises signaling breakdowns—such as formal protests, sanctions, or alliance ruptures—traders see low risk of rare persona non grata declarations before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$852Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting stable diplomatic relations amid the absence of recent escalations to that level. In March 2026, U.S.-South Africa tensions peaked when Washington declared South Africa's ambassador Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata over critical remarks, prompting expulsion calls in Pretoria against U.S. envoy Leo Brent Bozell III, yet South Africa refrained from action, de-escalating the spat. Iran's IRGC floated incentives for Arab or European nations to expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors to gain Strait of Hormuz passage, but no country followed through. With eight months remaining and no active diplomatic crises signaling breakdowns—such as formal protests, sanctions, or alliance ruptures—traders see low risk of rare persona non grata declarations before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$852Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 86% for any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, reflecting stable diplomatic relations amid the absence of recent escalations to that level. In March 2026, U.S.-South Africa tensions peaked when Washington declared South Africa's ambassador Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata over critical remarks, prompting expulsion calls in Pretoria against U.S. envoy Leo Brent Bozell III, yet South Africa refrained from action, de-escalating the spat. Iran's IRGC floated incentives for Arab or European nations to expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors to gain Strait of Hormuz passage, but no country followed through. With eight months remaining and no active diplomatic crises signaling breakdowns—such as formal protests, sanctions, or alliance ruptures—traders see low risk of rare persona non grata declarations before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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