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Mundo·Canadá

Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?

Market icon
Mundo·Canadá

Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?

Sim

16% acaso
Polymarket

$45,584 Vol.

Sim

16% acaso
Polymarket

$45,584 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices an 84.4% chance against Alberta voting for independence in 2026, driven by recent polls showing only 25-30% support for separation amid a "rock solid" two-thirds majority opposed, per Abacus Data's early March survey. Separatists with Stay Free Alberta claimed on April 1 to have surpassed 177,000 signatures via citizen initiative petition—meeting the 10% voter threshold for a potential October 19 referendum—but face skepticism over validity and a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 that could block it. Premier Danielle Smith opposes secession, prioritizing sovereignty measures like the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act, underscoring procedural hurdles and low public appetite as key factors holding odds firmly against a yes outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$45,584
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices an 84.4% chance against Alberta voting for independence in 2026, driven by recent polls showing only 25-30% support for separation amid a "rock solid" two-thirds majority opposed, per Abacus Data's early March survey. Separatists with Stay Free Alberta claimed on April 1 to have surpassed 177,000 signatures via citizen initiative petition—meeting the 10% voter threshold for a potential October 19 referendum—but face skepticism over validity and a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 that could block it. Premier Danielle Smith opposes secession, prioritizing sovereignty measures like the Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act, underscoring procedural hurdles and low public appetite as key factors holding odds firmly against a yes outcome.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$45,584
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" has generated $45.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" is "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.