Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have produced prisoner exchanges and brief ceasefires in 2026 but remain deadlocked over core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions relief. As of late July, Russian officials reported no concrete new proposals on the table, while battlefield activity and air strikes continue without signs of an imminent comprehensive agreement. With only days remaining until the August 31 deadline and no scheduled high-level signing or breakthrough framework, trader consensus reflects the absence of near-term conditions for formal resolution. Late diplomatic shifts or unexpected concessions could theoretically alter this trajectory, though entrenched positions make such developments unlikely in the narrow window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
<1% chance
$261,019 Vol.
$261,019 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Sim
<1% chance
$261,019 Vol.
$261,019 Vol.
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have produced prisoner exchanges and brief ceasefires in 2026 but remain deadlocked over core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions relief. As of late July, Russian officials reported no concrete new proposals on the table, while battlefield activity and air strikes continue without signs of an imminent comprehensive agreement. With only days remaining until the August 31 deadline and no scheduled high-level signing or breakthrough framework, trader consensus reflects the absence of near-term conditions for formal resolution. Late diplomatic shifts or unexpected concessions could theoretically alter this trajectory, though entrenched positions make such developments unlikely in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$261,019Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have produced prisoner exchanges and brief ceasefires in 2026 but remain deadlocked over core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions relief. As of late July, Russian officials reported no concrete new proposals on the table, while battlefield activity and air strikes continue without signs of an imminent comprehensive agreement. With only days remaining until the August 31 deadline and no scheduled high-level signing or breakthrough framework, trader consensus reflects the absence of near-term conditions for formal resolution. Late diplomatic shifts or unexpected concessions could theoretically alter this trajectory, though entrenched positions make such developments unlikely in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$261,019Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have produced prisoner exchanges and brief ceasefires in 2026 but remain deadlocked over core issues including territorial control, security guarantees, and sanctions relief. As of late July, Russian officials reported no concrete new proposals on the table, while battlefield activity and air strikes continue without signs of an imminent comprehensive agreement. With only days remaining until the August 31 deadline and no scheduled high-level signing or breakthrough framework, trader consensus reflects the absence of near-term conditions for formal resolution. Late diplomatic shifts or unexpected concessions could theoretically alter this trajectory, though entrenched positions make such developments unlikely in the narrow window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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