Trader consensus prices "No" at 97%, reflecting entrenched Russian control over Crimea—annexed in 2014 and fortified as a key naval base with extensive defenses, including the Kerch Bridge—amid Ukraine's ongoing but limited drone strikes degrading Russian assets there. Recent developments, such as Ukrainian hits on air defenses, radars, ships, and a Russian An-26 crash killing a general in occupied Crimea on April 2, highlight Kyiv's strategy of attrition from afar rather than ground assault, as frontlines remain over 200 km distant in Donetsk and Kherson amid Russia's stalled spring offensive. With just three months until resolution, recapture faces insurmountable barriers like lacking air superiority, naval power, and manpower, though a dramatic Russian withdrawal or massive Western escalation could theoretically shift dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoA Ucrânia recapturará o território da Crimeia até 30 de junho de 2026?
A Ucrânia recapturará o território da Crimeia até 30 de junho de 2026?
Sim
$55,750 Vol.
$55,750 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$55,750 Vol.
$55,750 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 97%, reflecting entrenched Russian control over Crimea—annexed in 2014 and fortified as a key naval base with extensive defenses, including the Kerch Bridge—amid Ukraine's ongoing but limited drone strikes degrading Russian assets there. Recent developments, such as Ukrainian hits on air defenses, radars, ships, and a Russian An-26 crash killing a general in occupied Crimea on April 2, highlight Kyiv's strategy of attrition from afar rather than ground assault, as frontlines remain over 200 km distant in Donetsk and Kherson amid Russia's stalled spring offensive. With just three months until resolution, recapture faces insurmountable barriers like lacking air superiority, naval power, and manpower, though a dramatic Russian withdrawal or massive Western escalation could theoretically shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$55,750Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 97%, reflecting entrenched Russian control over Crimea—annexed in 2014 and fortified as a key naval base with extensive defenses, including the Kerch Bridge—amid Ukraine's ongoing but limited drone strikes degrading Russian assets there. Recent developments, such as Ukrainian hits on air defenses, radars, ships, and a Russian An-26 crash killing a general in occupied Crimea on April 2, highlight Kyiv's strategy of attrition from afar rather than ground assault, as frontlines remain over 200 km distant in Donetsk and Kherson amid Russia's stalled spring offensive. With just three months until resolution, recapture faces insurmountable barriers like lacking air superiority, naval power, and manpower, though a dramatic Russian withdrawal or massive Western escalation could theoretically shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$55,750Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 97%, reflecting entrenched Russian control over Crimea—annexed in 2014 and fortified as a key naval base with extensive defenses, including the Kerch Bridge—amid Ukraine's ongoing but limited drone strikes degrading Russian assets there. Recent developments, such as Ukrainian hits on air defenses, radars, ships, and a Russian An-26 crash killing a general in occupied Crimea on April 2, highlight Kyiv's strategy of attrition from afar rather than ground assault, as frontlines remain over 200 km distant in Donetsk and Kherson amid Russia's stalled spring offensive. With just three months until resolution, recapture faces insurmountable barriers like lacking air superiority, naval power, and manpower, though a dramatic Russian withdrawal or massive Western escalation could theoretically shift dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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