Amid the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now entering its fifth week following initial strikes in early March 2026, traders assess low probabilities for additional countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE launching actions by March 31. President Trump extended a deadline on March 26 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalation absent compliance, while the White House reiterated further strikes on March 25 if no deal emerges. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive operations against Iranian missiles on March 1, but Gulf states condition involvement on direct attacks to their energy infrastructure. Houthi strikes on Israel yesterday heightened regional tensions, though no new commitments from other actors in the past 48 hours signal imminent expansion before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$10,833,963 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arábia Saudita
4%
Emirados Árabes Unidos
3%
Catar
2%
Bahrein
2%
Jordânia
1%
Algum país da UE
1%
Reino Unido
1%
Kuwait
1%
Turquia
1%
França
1%
Omã
1%
Alemanha
<1%
Canadá
<1%
$10,833,963 Vol.
Arábia Saudita
$2,205,481 Vol.
4%
Emirados Árabes Unidos
$2,851,318 Vol.
3%
Catar
$946,120 Vol.
2%
Bahrein
$392,798 Vol.
2%
Jordânia
$189,690 Vol.
1%
Algum país da UE
$472,045 Vol.
1%
Reino Unido
$948,390 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$211,626 Vol.
1%
Turquia
$481,794 Vol.
1%
França
$750,278 Vol.
1%
Omã
$132,053 Vol.
1%
Alemanha
$912,744 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$339,706 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now entering its fifth week following initial strikes in early March 2026, traders assess low probabilities for additional countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE launching actions by March 31. President Trump extended a deadline on March 26 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalation absent compliance, while the White House reiterated further strikes on March 25 if no deal emerges. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive operations against Iranian missiles on March 1, but Gulf states condition involvement on direct attacks to their energy infrastructure. Houthi strikes on Israel yesterday heightened regional tensions, though no new commitments from other actors in the past 48 hours signal imminent expansion before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,833,963Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now entering its fifth week following initial strikes in early March 2026, traders assess low probabilities for additional countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE launching actions by March 31. President Trump extended a deadline on March 26 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalation absent compliance, while the White House reiterated further strikes on March 25 if no deal emerges. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive operations against Iranian missiles on March 1, but Gulf states condition involvement on direct attacks to their energy infrastructure. Houthi strikes on Israel yesterday heightened regional tensions, though no new commitments from other actors in the past 48 hours signal imminent expansion before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,833,963Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, now entering its fifth week following initial strikes in early March 2026, traders assess low probabilities for additional countries like Saudi Arabia or UAE launching actions by March 31. President Trump extended a deadline on March 26 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening escalation absent compliance, while the White House reiterated further strikes on March 25 if no deal emerges. UK, France, and Germany signaled readiness for defensive operations against Iranian missiles on March 1, but Gulf states condition involvement on direct attacks to their energy infrastructure. Houthi strikes on Israel yesterday heightened regional tensions, though no new commitments from other actors in the past 48 hours signal imminent expansion before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions