Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 (81%) due to the absence of any announced bilateral summit amid President-elect Trump's focus on cabinet nominations, Senate confirmation hearings, and administration transition following his November election victory. Putin remains entrenched in Ukraine military operations, with recent escalations including intensified airstrikes on Kharkiv and diplomatic stalemates in ceasefire talks, reducing near-term summit feasibility. No official statements from the White House transition team or Kremlin signal coordination, while logistical barriers—such as U.S. sanctions barring travel to Russia and reciprocal restrictions—dampen odds for specific venues like Russia (2%) or the United States (2%). Neutral sites like Gulf countries or Turkey linger at low probabilities absent diplomatic breakthroughs, with traders eyeing potential de-escalation post-Trump's January 20 inauguration as a future catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNenhum encontro até 30 de junho 80.4%
Outro país da UE 3.0%
Outro 2.8%
Rússia 2.1%
$2,857,595 Vol.
$2,857,595 Vol.

Nenhum encontro até 30 de junho
80%

Outro país da UE
3%

Outro
3%

Rússia
2%

China
2%

Estados Unidos
2%

País do Golfo
2%

Turquia
1%

Bielorrússia
1%

Suíça
1%

Japão
<1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Finlândia
<1%

Ucrânia
<1%

Austrália
<1%
Nenhum encontro até 30 de junho 80.4%
Outro país da UE 3.0%
Outro 2.8%
Rússia 2.1%
$2,857,595 Vol.
$2,857,595 Vol.

Nenhum encontro até 30 de junho
80%

Outro país da UE
3%

Outro
3%

Rússia
2%

China
2%

Estados Unidos
2%

País do Golfo
2%

Turquia
1%

Bielorrússia
1%

Suíça
1%

Japão
<1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Finlândia
<1%

Ucrânia
<1%

Austrália
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 30, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 (81%) due to the absence of any announced bilateral summit amid President-elect Trump's focus on cabinet nominations, Senate confirmation hearings, and administration transition following his November election victory. Putin remains entrenched in Ukraine military operations, with recent escalations including intensified airstrikes on Kharkiv and diplomatic stalemates in ceasefire talks, reducing near-term summit feasibility. No official statements from the White House transition team or Kremlin signal coordination, while logistical barriers—such as U.S. sanctions barring travel to Russia and reciprocal restrictions—dampen odds for specific venues like Russia (2%) or the United States (2%). Neutral sites like Gulf countries or Turkey linger at low probabilities absent diplomatic breakthroughs, with traders eyeing potential de-escalation post-Trump's January 20 inauguration as a future catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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