Market icon

When will Israel announce ceasefire?

Market icon

When will Israel announce ceasefire?

October 8 100.0%

October 7 <1%

October 9 <1%

October 10 <1%

Polymarket

$11,151,904 Vol.

October 8 100.0%

October 7 <1%

October 9 <1%

October 10 <1%

Polymarket

$11,151,904 Vol.

October 7

$1,741 Vol.

No

October 8

$10,249,058 Vol.

Yes

October 9

$356,525 Vol.

No

October 10

$86,049 Vol.

No

October 11

$31,659 Vol.

No

October 12

$55,146 Vol.

No

October 13

$28,553 Vol.

No

October 14

$20,769 Vol.

No

October 15

$22,260 Vol.

No

October 16

$19,009 Vol.

No

October 17

$21,909 Vol.

No

October 18

$18,333 Vol.

No

October 19

$16,268 Vol.

No

October 20

$17,328 Vol.

No

October 21

$16,531 Vol.

No

October 22

$16,056 Vol.

No

October 23

$15,851 Vol.

No

October 24

$15,288 Vol.

No

October 25

$13,844 Vol.

No

October 26

$13,268 Vol.

No

October 27

$12,801 Vol.

No

October 28

$14,002 Vol.

No

October 29

$15,254 Vol.

No

October 30

$13,262 Vol.

No

October 31

$20,035 Vol.

No

None in October

$41,102 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between itself and Hamas. If Israel does not officially announce that it has agreed to a ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in October”. If Israel officially announces an agreement before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating Israel has announced an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between itself and Hamas.

If Israel does not officially announce that it has agreed to a ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in October”.

If Israel officially announces an agreement before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating Israel has announced an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$11,151,904
Mercado Aberto
Oct 7, 2025, 11:33 AM ET

Resultado proposto: No

Sem contestação

Resultado final: No

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between itself and Hamas. If Israel does not officially announce that it has agreed to a ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in October”. If Israel officially announces an agreement before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating Israel has announced an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"When will Israel announce ceasefire? " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 26 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "October 8" at 100%, followed by "October 7" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will Israel announce ceasefire? " has generated $11.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 7, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will Israel announce ceasefire? ," browse the 26 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will Israel announce ceasefire? " is "October 8" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 7" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will Israel announce ceasefire? " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.