Trader consensus reflects a slight edge for a new country formally joining the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026 at 51.2% implied probability for Yes, driven by the Trump administration's aggressive diplomatic push amid a weakened Iran following recent military setbacks. President Trump's late-March 2026 appeals to Saudi Arabia at the Future Investment Initiative forum, framing normalization as a post-conflict opportunity, have fueled optimism, alongside stalled but persistent Somaliland pledges despite regional opposition from UAE and others. Balancing this are Saudi insistence on a clear Palestinian two-state path and Gaza ceasefire uncertainties, keeping the market competitive. Progress in Saudi-Israel bilateral talks or another Gulf state like Kuwait stepping forward could tip toward Yes, while escalating regional tensions might solidify No.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoUm novo país se juntará aos Acordos de Abraão antes de 2027?
Um novo país se juntará aos Acordos de Abraão antes de 2027?
Sim
$71,983 Vol.
$71,983 Vol.
Sim
$71,983 Vol.
$71,983 Vol.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a slight edge for a new country formally joining the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026 at 51.2% implied probability for Yes, driven by the Trump administration's aggressive diplomatic push amid a weakened Iran following recent military setbacks. President Trump's late-March 2026 appeals to Saudi Arabia at the Future Investment Initiative forum, framing normalization as a post-conflict opportunity, have fueled optimism, alongside stalled but persistent Somaliland pledges despite regional opposition from UAE and others. Balancing this are Saudi insistence on a clear Palestinian two-state path and Gaza ceasefire uncertainties, keeping the market competitive. Progress in Saudi-Israel bilateral talks or another Gulf state like Kuwait stepping forward could tip toward Yes, while escalating regional tensions might solidify No.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions