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Israel anexará o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?

Market icon

Israel anexará o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?

Sim

5% acaso
Polymarket

$83,571 Vol.

Sim

5% acaso
Polymarket

$83,571 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% on Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, reflecting the absence of any official government plans, legislative action, or cabinet approval for such a move amid ongoing military operations focused on security control rather than sovereignty extension. In late March, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for annexing limited Gaza areas up to a potential armistice line with Hamas, but this individual rhetoric lacks broader support and has prompted no policy shifts. Structural barriers—Gaza's 2 million Palestinian population, potential international sanctions, UN opposition, and historical 2005 disengagement—reinforce high confidence in non-annexation. Realistic shifts could arise from a major escalation enabling emergency Knesset legislation or diplomatic breakthroughs altering territorial status, though the three-month timeline limits feasibility.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,571
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 15, 2025, 5:26 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.2% on Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, reflecting the absence of any official government plans, legislative action, or cabinet approval for such a move amid ongoing military operations focused on security control rather than sovereignty extension. In late March, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for annexing limited Gaza areas up to a potential armistice line with Hamas, but this individual rhetoric lacks broader support and has prompted no policy shifts. Structural barriers—Gaza's 2 million Palestinian population, potential international sanctions, UN opposition, and historical 2005 disengagement—reinforce high confidence in non-annexation. Realistic shifts could arise from a major escalation enabling emergency Knesset legislation or diplomatic breakthroughs altering territorial status, though the three-month timeline limits feasibility.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,571
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 15, 2025, 5:26 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel anexará o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Israel vai anexar o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel anexará o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?" has generated $83.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel anexará o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Israel anexará o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?" is "Israel vai anexar o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Israel anexará o território de Gaza até 30 de junho de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.