Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.3% implied probability for Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the Israeli government's official policy explicitly rejecting territorial ambitions in Gaza, unlike accelerated West Bank settlement expansions and annexation measures approved in February and March 2026. Recent military operations emphasize security buffer zones in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and a fragile ceasefire phase securing hostage returns, but no Knesset bills, cabinet decisions, or diplomatic signals indicate sovereignty claims before the deadline. International condemnation of West Bank actions, including UN resolutions and reports from Amnesty International and OHCHR, reinforces legal and diplomatic barriers. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden post-ceasefire policy reversal, far-right coalition pressures, or escalated regional dynamics like Lebanon operations spilling over, though structural hurdles remain high.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$83,571 Vol.
$83,571 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$83,571 Vol.
$83,571 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.3% implied probability for Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the Israeli government's official policy explicitly rejecting territorial ambitions in Gaza, unlike accelerated West Bank settlement expansions and annexation measures approved in February and March 2026. Recent military operations emphasize security buffer zones in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and a fragile ceasefire phase securing hostage returns, but no Knesset bills, cabinet decisions, or diplomatic signals indicate sovereignty claims before the deadline. International condemnation of West Bank actions, including UN resolutions and reports from Amnesty International and OHCHR, reinforces legal and diplomatic barriers. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden post-ceasefire policy reversal, far-right coalition pressures, or escalated regional dynamics like Lebanon operations spilling over, though structural hurdles remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 15, 2025, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$83,571Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 15, 2025, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.3% implied probability for Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the Israeli government's official policy explicitly rejecting territorial ambitions in Gaza, unlike accelerated West Bank settlement expansions and annexation measures approved in February and March 2026. Recent military operations emphasize security buffer zones in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and a fragile ceasefire phase securing hostage returns, but no Knesset bills, cabinet decisions, or diplomatic signals indicate sovereignty claims before the deadline. International condemnation of West Bank actions, including UN resolutions and reports from Amnesty International and OHCHR, reinforces legal and diplomatic barriers. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden post-ceasefire policy reversal, far-right coalition pressures, or escalated regional dynamics like Lebanon operations spilling over, though structural hurdles remain high.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,571Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 15, 2025, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 95.3% implied probability for Israel annexing Gaza territory by June 30, 2026, driven by the Israeli government's official policy explicitly rejecting territorial ambitions in Gaza, unlike accelerated West Bank settlement expansions and annexation measures approved in February and March 2026. Recent military operations emphasize security buffer zones in Gaza amid ongoing conflict and a fragile ceasefire phase securing hostage returns, but no Knesset bills, cabinet decisions, or diplomatic signals indicate sovereignty claims before the deadline. International condemnation of West Bank actions, including UN resolutions and reports from Amnesty International and OHCHR, reinforces legal and diplomatic barriers. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden post-ceasefire policy reversal, far-right coalition pressures, or escalated regional dynamics like Lebanon operations spilling over, though structural hurdles remain high.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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