Amid escalating exchanges in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran's missile and drone strike on the US-operated Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27—injuring 12 American troops—has intensified trader focus on potential Iranian retaliation against Gulf hosts. Iran-backed Houthis followed with missile attacks on Israel on March 28, signaling proxy escalation, while Tehran vowed to target power and water infrastructure in Gulf states if US strikes on its facilities resume. President Trump postponed bombing Iranian power plants on March 23 amid conflicting ceasefire signals, with US Marines now deploying to the region. Traders weigh Iran's depleted missile stocks against threats to oil fields and industrial sites like Ras Laffan or Safaniya, as diplomatic talks falter before April deadlines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$53,114 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ras Laffan Industrial City
50%
Ras Tanura
40%
Al Zour Refinery
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
26%
Ruwais Refinery
26%
Ghawar Field
24%
East–West Pipeline
21%
Khurais Field
20%
Safaniya Field
19%
Leviathan Field
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
10%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$53,114 Vol.
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,320 Vol.
50%
Ras Tanura
$4,320 Vol.
40%
Al Zour Refinery
$0 Vol.
27%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$3,167 Vol.
26%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$6,232 Vol.
26%
Ruwais Refinery
$1,865 Vol.
26%
Ghawar Field
$549 Vol.
24%
East–West Pipeline
$4,925 Vol.
21%
Khurais Field
$4,357 Vol.
20%
Safaniya Field
$1,228 Vol.
19%
Leviathan Field
$1,511 Vol.
18%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$587 Vol.
17%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$12,723 Vol.
10%
Burj Khalifa
$330 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating exchanges in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran's missile and drone strike on the US-operated Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27—injuring 12 American troops—has intensified trader focus on potential Iranian retaliation against Gulf hosts. Iran-backed Houthis followed with missile attacks on Israel on March 28, signaling proxy escalation, while Tehran vowed to target power and water infrastructure in Gulf states if US strikes on its facilities resume. President Trump postponed bombing Iranian power plants on March 23 amid conflicting ceasefire signals, with US Marines now deploying to the region. Traders weigh Iran's depleted missile stocks against threats to oil fields and industrial sites like Ras Laffan or Safaniya, as diplomatic talks falter before April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$53,114Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating exchanges in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran's missile and drone strike on the US-operated Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27—injuring 12 American troops—has intensified trader focus on potential Iranian retaliation against Gulf hosts. Iran-backed Houthis followed with missile attacks on Israel on March 28, signaling proxy escalation, while Tehran vowed to target power and water infrastructure in Gulf states if US strikes on its facilities resume. President Trump postponed bombing Iranian power plants on March 23 amid conflicting ceasefire signals, with US Marines now deploying to the region. Traders weigh Iran's depleted missile stocks against threats to oil fields and industrial sites like Ras Laffan or Safaniya, as diplomatic talks falter before April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$53,114Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating exchanges in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran's missile and drone strike on the US-operated Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27—injuring 12 American troops—has intensified trader focus on potential Iranian retaliation against Gulf hosts. Iran-backed Houthis followed with missile attacks on Israel on March 28, signaling proxy escalation, while Tehran vowed to target power and water infrastructure in Gulf states if US strikes on its facilities resume. President Trump postponed bombing Iranian power plants on March 23 amid conflicting ceasefire signals, with US Marines now deploying to the region. Traders weigh Iran's depleted missile stocks against threats to oil fields and industrial sites like Ras Laffan or Safaniya, as diplomatic talks falter before April deadlines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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