Manuel Saavedra's dominant 93.3% trader consensus in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election stems from consistent pre-election polls showing him leading by 40-50 points, bolstered by strong local backing in Bolivia's largest city. Recent developments, including final campaign rallies and exit polls confirming his advantage over MAS-linked challenger Angélica Sosa, have solidified market pricing reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments. Santa Cruz's history of favoring non-MAS candidates further supports this positioning. Realistic upset scenarios include disputed vote tallies, as seen in past Bolivian local races, unexpected high turnout for underdogs, or electoral court rulings delaying certification, though no such catalysts have emerged.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição municipal de Santa Cruz de la Sierra (Bolívia)
Vencedor da eleição municipal de Santa Cruz de la Sierra (Bolívia)
Manuel Saavedra 94.7%
Angélica Sosa 1.7%
Alfredo Solares 1.5%
Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine <1%
$1,037,787 Vol.
$1,037,787 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Manuel Saavedra
95%
Angélica Sosa
2%
Alfredo Solares
2%
Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine
<1%
Jhonny Fernández
<1%
Soo Hyun Chung
<1%
José Gary Áñez
<1%
Oscar Vargas
<1%
Félix Oros
<1%
Vicente Cuéllar
<1%
Luciano Negrete
<1%
Manuel Saavedra 94.7%
Angélica Sosa 1.7%
Alfredo Solares 1.5%
Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine <1%
$1,037,787 Vol.
$1,037,787 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Manuel Saavedra
$607,673 Vol.
95%
Angélica Sosa
$19,300 Vol.
2%
Alfredo Solares
$23,711 Vol.
2%
Ingrid Rosario Schamisseddine
$11,125 Vol.
<1%
Jhonny Fernández
$254,146 Vol.
<1%
Soo Hyun Chung
$14,486 Vol.
<1%
José Gary Áñez
$27,200 Vol.
<1%
Oscar Vargas
$42,041 Vol.
<1%
Félix Oros
$20,382 Vol.
<1%
Vicente Cuéllar
$9,381 Vol.
<1%
Luciano Negrete
$8,342 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,037,787Data de Término
Mar 22, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Volume
$1,037,787Data de Término
Mar 22, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Manuel Saavedra's dominant 93.3% trader consensus in the Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral election stems from consistent pre-election polls showing him leading by 40-50 points, bolstered by strong local backing in Bolivia's largest city. Recent developments, including final campaign rallies and exit polls confirming his advantage over MAS-linked challenger Angélica Sosa, have solidified market pricing reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments. Santa Cruz's history of favoring non-MAS candidates further supports this positioning. Realistic upset scenarios include disputed vote tallies, as seen in past Bolivian local races, unexpected high turnout for underdogs, or electoral court rulings delaying certification, though no such catalysts have emerged.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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