Polymarket traders assign an 81% implied probability to no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, with 16% for an increase and 6% for a cut, reflecting steady policy amid conflicting signals. The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% in its February 18 decision under new Governor Anna Breman, citing spare capacity despite December 2025 quarter CPI inflation at 3.1%—above the 1-3% target band—and unemployment climbing to a decade-high 5.4%. Sticky tradables inflation from higher food and travel costs tempers easing expectations, while labor market weakness supports accommodation. Traders await the April 8 Monetary Policy Review for forward guidance on inflation trajectory and rate path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?
No Change 76%
Increase 16%
Decrease 6.0%
Increase
16%
No Change
80%
Decrease
6%
No Change 76%
Increase 16%
Decrease 6.0%
Increase
16%
No Change
80%
Decrease
6%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 17, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign an 81% implied probability to no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, with 16% for an increase and 6% for a cut, reflecting steady policy amid conflicting signals. The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% in its February 18 decision under new Governor Anna Breman, citing spare capacity despite December 2025 quarter CPI inflation at 3.1%—above the 1-3% target band—and unemployment climbing to a decade-high 5.4%. Sticky tradables inflation from higher food and travel costs tempers easing expectations, while labor market weakness supports accommodation. Traders await the April 8 Monetary Policy Review for forward guidance on inflation trajectory and rate path.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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