JD Vance tops Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner odds at 20.1%, edging Gavin Newsom's 17.9% in a tight race with Marco Rubio at 11.7%, reflecting Republican succession bets amid Democratic disarray post-2024. Trader sentiment hinges on anticipated Trump victory elevating Vance's VP profile as heir apparent, contrasted by Newsom's California governance and fundraising edge in a fragmented blue field lacking Harris momentum. The closeness persists due to the four-year horizon, unpredictable primaries, and base turnout variables. Catalysts for separation include 2026 midterms, economic policy outcomes, scandals, or endorsements reshaping party nominations and general election viability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028
Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028
JD Vance 20.1%
Gavin Newsom 17.9%
Marco Rubio 11.7%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$438,820,563 Vol.
$438,820,563 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
JD Vance 20.1%
Gavin Newsom 17.9%
Marco Rubio 11.7%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.8%
$438,820,563 Vol.
$438,820,563 Vol.

JD Vance
20%

Gavin Newsom
18%

Marco Rubio
12%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Donald Trump
3%

Josh Shapiro
3%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

James Talarico
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Eric Trump
1%

LeBron James
1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance tops Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner odds at 20.1%, edging Gavin Newsom's 17.9% in a tight race with Marco Rubio at 11.7%, reflecting Republican succession bets amid Democratic disarray post-2024. Trader sentiment hinges on anticipated Trump victory elevating Vance's VP profile as heir apparent, contrasted by Newsom's California governance and fundraising edge in a fragmented blue field lacking Harris momentum. The closeness persists due to the four-year horizon, unpredictable primaries, and base turnout variables. Catalysts for separation include 2026 midterms, economic policy outcomes, scandals, or endorsements reshaping party nominations and general election viability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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