Trader consensus favors Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets from March 21-23, 2026 (39% implied probability), closely trailed by 90-114 (29.5%), as bettors weigh his volatile posting habits amid cultural firestorms and business milestones. Recent spikes—often exceeding 100 daily during Tesla earnings drama, SpaceX launches, or political clashes—anchor the moderate-high range lead, per 2024 patterns averaging 25-40 tweets/day but surging to 200+ on hot-button days. Differentiators include potential 2026 catalysts like Starship tests or AI policy debates boosting volume, versus quieter weekends capping output; historical three-day averages hover near 100 amid X's algorithm favoring his viral style, keeping upper ranges viable but low-probability tail risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado115-139 38%
90-114 32%
140-164 20.9%
65-89 3.4%
$1,049,956 Vol.
$1,049,956 Vol.
40-64
1%
65-89
3%
90-114
32%
115-139
38%
140-164
21%
165-189
3%
190-214
3%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
115-139 38%
90-114 32%
140-164 20.9%
65-89 3.4%
$1,049,956 Vol.
$1,049,956 Vol.
40-64
1%
65-89
3%
90-114
32%
115-139
38%
140-164
21%
165-189
3%
190-214
3%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Elon Musk posting 115-139 tweets from March 21-23, 2026 (39% implied probability), closely trailed by 90-114 (29.5%), as bettors weigh his volatile posting habits amid cultural firestorms and business milestones. Recent spikes—often exceeding 100 daily during Tesla earnings drama, SpaceX launches, or political clashes—anchor the moderate-high range lead, per 2024 patterns averaging 25-40 tweets/day but surging to 200+ on hot-button days. Differentiators include potential 2026 catalysts like Starship tests or AI policy debates boosting volume, versus quieter weekends capping output; historical three-day averages hover near 100 amid X's algorithm favoring his viral style, keeping upper ranges viable but low-probability tail risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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