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Política·Inglaterra

O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?

Market icon
Política·Inglaterra

O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?

Nenhum próximo PM em 2026 45%

Angela Rayner 16%

Ed Miliband 7.5%

Wes Streeting 5%

Polymarket

$4,232,473 Vol.

Nenhum próximo PM em 2026 45%

Angela Rayner 16%

Ed Miliband 7.5%

Wes Streeting 5%

Polymarket

$4,232,473 Vol.

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Nenhum próximo PM em 2026

$133,057 Vol.

45%

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Angela Rayner

$261,928 Vol.

16%

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Ed Miliband

$176,536 Vol.

8%

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Wes Streeting

$62,471 Vol.

5%

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Rupert Lowe

$574,216 Vol.

3%

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Andy Burnham

$293,706 Vol.

3%

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Nigel Farage

$656,801 Vol.

3%

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Al Carns

$105,612 Vol.

1%

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Yvette Cooper

$173,647 Vol.

1%

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Shabana Mahmood

$200,583 Vol.

1%

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David Lammy

$98,486 Vol.

1%

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Lucy Powell

$180,648 Vol.

1%

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Kemi Badenoch

$113,970 Vol.

<1%

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Rachel Reeves

$353,033 Vol.

<1%

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Darren Jones

$126,627 Vol.

<1%

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Robert Jenrick

$206,072 Vol.

<1%

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James Cleverly

$153,347 Vol.

<1%

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Boris Johnson

$149,546 Vol.

<1%

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Ed Davey

$146,336 Vol.

<1%

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Bridget Phillipson

$65,849 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty over Keir Starmer's Labour leadership amid dismal polls and economic strains, yet gives "No Next PM in 2026" a 44.5% implied probability due to cabinet solidarity against challengers and MPs' reluctance to trigger a contest during the escalating Middle East conflict, including Iran Strait tensions. Angela Rayner's 15.5% lead among successors stems from her March 18 speech branding migration reforms "un-British," allies' recent warnings of electoral wipeout, and plotting Starmer's ouster ahead of May local elections. Lower odds for Ed Miliband (7.5%) and Wes Streeting (4.5%) track their cabinet roles, while Reform UK's Rupert Lowe (3.4%) and Nigel Farage (2.8%) face barriers absent a snap election or no-confidence vote.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,232,473
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty over Keir Starmer's Labour leadership amid dismal polls and economic strains, yet gives "No Next PM in 2026" a 44.5% implied probability due to cabinet solidarity against challengers and MPs' reluctance to trigger a contest during the escalating Middle East conflict, including Iran Strait tensions. Angela Rayner's 15.5% lead among successors stems from her March 18 speech branding migration reforms "un-British," allies' recent warnings of electoral wipeout, and plotting Starmer's ouster ahead of May local elections. Lower odds for Ed Miliband (7.5%) and Wes Streeting (4.5%) track their cabinet roles, while Reform UK's Rupert Lowe (3.4%) and Nigel Farage (2.8%) face barriers absent a snap election or no-confidence vote.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,232,473
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nenhum próximo PM em 2026" at 45%, followed by "Angela Rayner" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?" has generated $4.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?" is "Nenhum próximo PM em 2026" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angela Rayner" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O próximo primeiro-ministro do Reino Unido em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.