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Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

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Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 6.6%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,348,082 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 16%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel 6.6%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,348,082 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria

$29,742 Vol.

57%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$20,371 Vol.

16%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel

$1,011,794 Vol.

7%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido

$559,878 Vol.

5%

Trump - Presidente dos EUA

$213,750 Vol.

2%

Putin - Presidente da Rússia

$353,644 Vol.

2%

Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão

$351,551 Vol.

2%

Macron - Presidente da França

$73,134 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia

$14,217 Vol.

1%

Petro - Presidente da Colômbia

$15,570 Vol.

1%

Nenhum antes de 2027

$13,866 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente da Palestina

$62,511 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC

$41,757 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil

$42,636 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha

$13,588 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria

$30,380 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França

$57,437 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela

$26,544 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia

$77,774 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte

$26,704 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália

$60,998 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Governador da Califórnia

$115,057 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente da Argentina

$38,442 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Chanceler alemão

$30,629 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Presidente do México

$66,110 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán departing power first before 2027, priced at 59.5%, amid polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition leader Péter Magyar by up to 10 points ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Recent mass rallies in Budapest, Fidesz admissions of deficits, and Hungary's ban on Polymarket—triggered by surging bets on an Orbán loss—have solidified this positioning. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% following mid-March US demands for his removal in negotiations amid protests, shortages, and economic crisis. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu (6.6%) faces coalition fractures, with ultra-Orthodox parties exiting and a March 31 budget deadline risking snap elections; UK PM Keir Starmer (4.7%) contends with Labour leadership challenges after recent by-election defeats.

Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán departing power first before 2027, priced at 59.5%, amid polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition leader Péter Magyar by up to 10 points ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Recent mass rallies in Budapest, Fidesz admissions of deficits, and Hungary's ban on Polymarket—triggered by surging bets on an Orbán loss—have solidified this positioning. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% following mid-March US demands for his removal in negotiations amid protests, shortages, and economic crisis. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu (6.6%) faces coalition fractures, with ultra-Orthodox parties exiting and a March 31 budget deadline risking snap elections; UK PM Keir Starmer (4.7%) contends with Labour leadership challenges after recent by-election defeats.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán departing power first before 2027, priced at 59.5%, amid polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition leader Péter Magyar by up to 10 points ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Recent mass rallies in Budapest, Fidesz admissions of deficits, and Hungary's ban on Polymarket—triggered by surging bets on an Orbán loss—have solidified this positioning. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% following mid-March US demands for his removal in negotiations amid protests, shortages, and economic crisis. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu (6.6%) faces coalition fractures, with ultra-Orthodox parties exiting and a March 31 budget deadline risking snap elections; UK PM Keir Starmer (4.7%) contends with Labour leadership challenges after recent by-election defeats.

Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán departing power first before 2027, priced at 59.5%, amid polls showing his Fidesz party trailing opposition leader Péter Magyar by up to 10 points ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election. Recent mass rallies in Budapest, Fidesz admissions of deficits, and Hungary's ban on Polymarket—triggered by surging bets on an Orbán loss—have solidified this positioning. Cuba President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 15.5% following mid-March US demands for his removal in negotiations amid protests, shortages, and economic crisis. Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu (6.6%) faces coalition fractures, with ultra-Orthodox parties exiting and a March 31 budget deadline risking snap elections; UK PM Keir Starmer (4.7%) contends with Labour leadership challenges after recent by-election defeats.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 57%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" has generated $3.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.