Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured the GOP nomination in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District primary on March 10, solidifying trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican House win in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III won his primary, with Independent Carl Boyanton also advancing, but neither poses a competitive threat in this reliably red seat where Ezell previously won by wide margins amid high GOP turnout. No recent polls show shifts, with the primary outcome as the key catalyst driving elevated odds. Scenarios like a major Ezell scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe districts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara MS-04
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara MS-04
$15,932 Vol.
$15,932 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$15,932 Vol.
$15,932 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$6,254 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$9,677 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured the GOP nomination in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District primary on March 10, solidifying trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican House win in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III won his primary, with Independent Carl Boyanton also advancing, but neither poses a competitive threat in this reliably red seat where Ezell previously won by wide margins amid high GOP turnout. No recent polls show shifts, with the primary outcome as the key catalyst driving elevated odds. Scenarios like a major Ezell scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$15,932Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured the GOP nomination in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District primary on March 10, solidifying trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican House win in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III won his primary, with Independent Carl Boyanton also advancing, but neither poses a competitive threat in this reliably red seat where Ezell previously won by wide margins amid high GOP turnout. No recent polls show shifts, with the primary outcome as the key catalyst driving elevated odds. Scenarios like a major Ezell scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,932Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured the GOP nomination in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District primary on March 10, solidifying trader consensus at 92.5% for a Republican House win in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III won his primary, with Independent Carl Boyanton also advancing, but neither poses a competitive threat in this reliably red seat where Ezell previously won by wide margins amid high GOP turnout. No recent polls show shifts, with the primary outcome as the key catalyst driving elevated odds. Scenarios like a major Ezell scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe districts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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