Israel's airstrikes on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, mark the most recent direct military action against Iran, resulting in four Iranian soldier deaths per official reports. No further strikes have occurred in the past month, reflecting mutual de-escalation signals amid U.S. diplomatic pressure to avoid broader war, Iran's focus on proxy support for Hezbollah and Houthis, and Israel's priorities in Gaza and Lebanon. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have vowed measured retaliation if provoked, but rhetoric has cooled. Key monitors include potential proxy escalations, IAEA nuclear inspections, and U.S. policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration ahead of January 20 inauguration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$144,884 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
<1%
March 27
<1%
March 28
3%
March 29
5%
March 30
7%
March 31
10%
15 de abril
31%
30 de abril
54%
31 de maio
53%
30 de junho
77%
$144,884 Vol.
March 26
$19,977 Vol.
<1%
March 27
$7,575 Vol.
<1%
March 28
$13,732 Vol.
3%
March 29
$19,500 Vol.
5%
March 30
$15,355 Vol.
7%
March 31
$68,109 Vol.
10%
15 de abril
$486 Vol.
31%
30 de abril
$0 Vol.
54%
31 de maio
$148 Vol.
53%
30 de junho
$0 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, mark the most recent direct military action against Iran, resulting in four Iranian soldier deaths per official reports. No further strikes have occurred in the past month, reflecting mutual de-escalation signals amid U.S. diplomatic pressure to avoid broader war, Iran's focus on proxy support for Hezbollah and Houthis, and Israel's priorities in Gaza and Lebanon. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have vowed measured retaliation if provoked, but rhetoric has cooled. Key monitors include potential proxy escalations, IAEA nuclear inspections, and U.S. policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration ahead of January 20 inauguration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$144,884Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, mark the most recent direct military action against Iran, resulting in four Iranian soldier deaths per official reports. No further strikes have occurred in the past month, reflecting mutual de-escalation signals amid U.S. diplomatic pressure to avoid broader war, Iran's focus on proxy support for Hezbollah and Houthis, and Israel's priorities in Gaza and Lebanon. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have vowed measured retaliation if provoked, but rhetoric has cooled. Key monitors include potential proxy escalations, IAEA nuclear inspections, and U.S. policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration ahead of January 20 inauguration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$144,884Data de Término
Jun 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Israel's airstrikes on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, mark the most recent direct military action against Iran, resulting in four Iranian soldier deaths per official reports. No further strikes have occurred in the past month, reflecting mutual de-escalation signals amid U.S. diplomatic pressure to avoid broader war, Iran's focus on proxy support for Hezbollah and Houthis, and Israel's priorities in Gaza and Lebanon. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have vowed measured retaliation if provoked, but rhetoric has cooled. Key monitors include potential proxy escalations, IAEA nuclear inspections, and U.S. policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration ahead of January 20 inauguration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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