US and Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including a major bridge near Tehran and facilities in Isfahan, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations on Israel and Gulf states in the past 24 hours. US intelligence assessments reveal Iran retains roughly half its missile launchers, thousands of one-way attack drones, and significant IRGC naval forces capable of disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, despite over 12,000 targets hit and claims of nearing core objectives like degrading nuclear and ballistic threats. President Trump insists operations could wrap in weeks amid oil price surges, but no ceasefire signals or diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged, with countries convening on Hormuz security; traders weigh persistent escalation risks against degraded Iranian launch rates down 90%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$61,216 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 3
1%
April 4
1%
April 5
2%
April 6
7%
April 7
10%
April 8
12%
April 9
16%
April 10
13%
April 11
41%
April 12
40%
April 13
18%
April 14
15%
April 15
10%
April 16
37%
April 17
44%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
44%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
30%
April 26
44%
April 27
44%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
41%
$61,216 Vol.
April 3
$5,891 Vol.
1%
April 4
$1,902 Vol.
1%
April 5
$542 Vol.
2%
April 6
$14 Vol.
7%
April 7
$50 Vol.
10%
April 8
$1 Vol.
12%
April 9
$2,790 Vol.
16%
April 10
$0 Vol.
13%
April 11
$0 Vol.
41%
April 12
$0 Vol.
40%
April 13
$0 Vol.
18%
April 14
$4,465 Vol.
15%
April 15
$159 Vol.
10%
April 16
$0 Vol.
37%
April 17
$0 Vol.
44%
April 18
$0 Vol.
44%
April 19
$0 Vol.
44%
April 20
$0 Vol.
44%
April 21
$0 Vol.
44%
April 22
$0 Vol.
44%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
44%
April 25
$2,770 Vol.
30%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$38 Vol.
44%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$0 Vol.
44%
April 30
$20,939 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including a major bridge near Tehran and facilities in Isfahan, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations on Israel and Gulf states in the past 24 hours. US intelligence assessments reveal Iran retains roughly half its missile launchers, thousands of one-way attack drones, and significant IRGC naval forces capable of disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, despite over 12,000 targets hit and claims of nearing core objectives like degrading nuclear and ballistic threats. President Trump insists operations could wrap in weeks amid oil price surges, but no ceasefire signals or diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged, with countries convening on Hormuz security; traders weigh persistent escalation risks against degraded Iranian launch rates down 90%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$61,216Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including a major bridge near Tehran and facilities in Isfahan, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations on Israel and Gulf states in the past 24 hours. US intelligence assessments reveal Iran retains roughly half its missile launchers, thousands of one-way attack drones, and significant IRGC naval forces capable of disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, despite over 12,000 targets hit and claims of nearing core objectives like degrading nuclear and ballistic threats. President Trump insists operations could wrap in weeks amid oil price surges, but no ceasefire signals or diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged, with countries convening on Hormuz security; traders weigh persistent escalation risks against degraded Iranian launch rates down 90%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,216Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes continue against Iranian military targets, including a major bridge near Tehran and facilities in Isfahan, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations on Israel and Gulf states in the past 24 hours. US intelligence assessments reveal Iran retains roughly half its missile launchers, thousands of one-way attack drones, and significant IRGC naval forces capable of disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, despite over 12,000 targets hit and claims of nearing core objectives like degrading nuclear and ballistic threats. President Trump insists operations could wrap in weeks amid oil price surges, but no ceasefire signals or diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged, with countries convening on Hormuz security; traders weigh persistent escalation risks against degraded Iranian launch rates down 90%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions