Market icon

Extensão máxima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste inverno?

Market icon

Extensão máxima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste inverno?

14,2-14,4 milhões km² 93%

14,8-15 milhões km² 4.2%

<14 milhões km² 3.6%

15m+ km² 1.5%

Polymarket

$22,465 Vol.

14,2-14,4 milhões km² 93%

14,8-15 milhões km² 4.2%

<14 milhões km² 3.6%

15m+ km² 1.5%

Polymarket

$22,465 Vol.

Market icon

<14 milhões km²

$1,521 Vol.

4%

Market icon

14-14,2 milhões km²

$1,191 Vol.

1%

Market icon

14,2-14,4 milhões km²

$10,166 Vol.

93%

Market icon

14,4-14,6 mi km²

$1,359 Vol.

1%

Market icon

14,6-14,8 milhões km²

$1,885 Vol.

5%

Market icon

14,8-15 milhões km²

$843 Vol.

4%

Market icon

15m+ km²

$5,500 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$22,465
Data de Término
Apr 1, 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a maximum Arctic sea ice extent of 14.2-14.4 million square kilometers this winter (92.5% implied probability), driven by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations showing November 2024 extent at 10.05 million sq km—the sixth lowest on record—and sluggish December growth amid persistent warm anomalies over the Barents and Bering Seas. This aligns with the long-term downward trend, where recent March maxima have averaged around 14.3 million sq km since 2018, per satellite records. Scenarios challenging this include a sudden shift to a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation phase, fostering expansive cold outbreaks and anomalous refreezing, though ensemble model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF currently project within the consensus bin.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Extensão máxima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste inverno?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "14,2-14,4 milhões km²" at 93%, followed by "14,6-14,8 milhões km²" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Extensão máxima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste inverno?" has generated $22.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Extensão máxima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste inverno?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Extensão máxima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste inverno?" is "14,2-14,4 milhões km²" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14,6-14,8 milhões km²" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Extensão máxima do gelo marinho do Ártico neste inverno?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.