Preliminary datasets from the Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5 reanalysis and Berkeley Earth observations place March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus on the 1.25–1.29°C outcome at 67% implied probability amid sustained warmth from January (1.47°C) and February (1.49–1.55°C). This positioning stems from the recent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions post-La Niña, combined with accelerated warming trends documented in early March studies showing rates nearing 0.35°C per decade driven by greenhouse gases and reduced aerosol cooling. Model consensus and historical March analogs (e.g., 1.55°C in 2025) support this range, though final NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information confirmation expected mid-April could adjust for late-month ocean measurements and data homogenization uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMarço de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Março de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,25–1,29ºC 66.8%
1,20–1,24ºC 20%
>1,29ºC 9.5%
1,15–1,19ºC 1.9%
$221,264 Vol.
$221,264 Vol.
10 abr 2026
<1,10ºC
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC
2%
1,20–1,24ºC
20%
1,25–1,29ºC
67%
>1,29ºC
10%
1,25–1,29ºC 66.8%
1,20–1,24ºC 20%
>1,29ºC 9.5%
1,15–1,19ºC 1.9%
$221,264 Vol.
$221,264 Vol.
10 abr 2026
<1,10ºC
$28,788 Vol.
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$31,882 Vol.
1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$53,042 Vol.
2%
1,20–1,24ºC
$38,971 Vol.
20%
1,25–1,29ºC
$26,397 Vol.
67%
>1,29ºC
$42,183 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary datasets from the Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5 reanalysis and Berkeley Earth observations place March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus on the 1.25–1.29°C outcome at 67% implied probability amid sustained warmth from January (1.47°C) and February (1.49–1.55°C). This positioning stems from the recent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions post-La Niña, combined with accelerated warming trends documented in early March studies showing rates nearing 0.35°C per decade driven by greenhouse gases and reduced aerosol cooling. Model consensus and historical March analogs (e.g., 1.55°C in 2025) support this range, though final NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information confirmation expected mid-April could adjust for late-month ocean measurements and data homogenization uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$221,264Data de Término
10 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary datasets from the Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5 reanalysis and Berkeley Earth observations place March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus on the 1.25–1.29°C outcome at 67% implied probability amid sustained warmth from January (1.47°C) and February (1.49–1.55°C). This positioning stems from the recent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions post-La Niña, combined with accelerated warming trends documented in early March studies showing rates nearing 0.35°C per decade driven by greenhouse gases and reduced aerosol cooling. Model consensus and historical March analogs (e.g., 1.55°C in 2025) support this range, though final NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information confirmation expected mid-April could adjust for late-month ocean measurements and data homogenization uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$221,264Data de Término
10 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary datasets from the Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5 reanalysis and Berkeley Earth observations place March 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, anchoring trader consensus on the 1.25–1.29°C outcome at 67% implied probability amid sustained warmth from January (1.47°C) and February (1.49–1.55°C). This positioning stems from the recent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions post-La Niña, combined with accelerated warming trends documented in early March studies showing rates nearing 0.35°C per decade driven by greenhouse gases and reduced aerosol cooling. Model consensus and historical March analogs (e.g., 1.55°C in 2025) support this range, though final NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information confirmation expected mid-April could adjust for late-month ocean measurements and data homogenization uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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