A fragile ceasefire in Gaza, holding since October amid Israel's broader regional conflicts with Iran and Lebanon, continues to see low-level Israeli military actions, including IDF airstrikes and drone strikes targeting Hamas operatives and infrastructure. The most recent verifiable incidents include a March 28 airstrike in Gaza City's Al-Shuja'iya neighborhood killing two, per AFP, and overnight March 29 strikes eliminating around 10 armed militants in central Gaza, as confirmed by the IDF. Over 60 Hamas members have been killed in such operations this month, amid tunnel demolitions and clashes near the "yellow line." Diplomatic efforts for Hamas disarmament proceed slowly, but no major escalation or full truce enforcement is imminent, leaving daily strike risks elevated for traders assessing specific-date markets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoAção militar de Israel contra Gaza em...?
Ação militar de Israel contra Gaza em...?
$914,301 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 27
2%
March 28
10%
March 30
76%
March 31
46%
$914,301 Vol.
March 27
$84,964 Vol.
2%
March 28
$103,043 Vol.
10%
March 30
$15,426 Vol.
76%
March 31
$2,428 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil between market creation and 11:59 PM on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile ceasefire in Gaza, holding since October amid Israel's broader regional conflicts with Iran and Lebanon, continues to see low-level Israeli military actions, including IDF airstrikes and drone strikes targeting Hamas operatives and infrastructure. The most recent verifiable incidents include a March 28 airstrike in Gaza City's Al-Shuja'iya neighborhood killing two, per AFP, and overnight March 29 strikes eliminating around 10 armed militants in central Gaza, as confirmed by the IDF. Over 60 Hamas members have been killed in such operations this month, amid tunnel demolitions and clashes near the "yellow line." Diplomatic efforts for Hamas disarmament proceed slowly, but no major escalation or full truce enforcement is imminent, leaving daily strike risks elevated for traders assessing specific-date markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volume
$914,301Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil between market creation and 11:59 PM on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile ceasefire in Gaza, holding since October amid Israel's broader regional conflicts with Iran and Lebanon, continues to see low-level Israeli military actions, including IDF airstrikes and drone strikes targeting Hamas operatives and infrastructure. The most recent verifiable incidents include a March 28 airstrike in Gaza City's Al-Shuja'iya neighborhood killing two, per AFP, and overnight March 29 strikes eliminating around 10 armed militants in central Gaza, as confirmed by the IDF. Over 60 Hamas members have been killed in such operations this month, amid tunnel demolitions and clashes near the "yellow line." Diplomatic efforts for Hamas disarmament proceed slowly, but no major escalation or full truce enforcement is imminent, leaving daily strike risks elevated for traders assessing specific-date markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$914,301Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
A fragile ceasefire in Gaza, holding since October amid Israel's broader regional conflicts with Iran and Lebanon, continues to see low-level Israeli military actions, including IDF airstrikes and drone strikes targeting Hamas operatives and infrastructure. The most recent verifiable incidents include a March 28 airstrike in Gaza City's Al-Shuja'iya neighborhood killing two, per AFP, and overnight March 29 strikes eliminating around 10 armed militants in central Gaza, as confirmed by the IDF. Over 60 Hamas members have been killed in such operations this month, amid tunnel demolitions and clashes near the "yellow line." Diplomatic efforts for Hamas disarmament proceed slowly, but no major escalation or full truce enforcement is imminent, leaving daily strike risks elevated for traders assessing specific-date markets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions