Amid the US-Israeli war with Iran ignited by late February 2026 strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, Tehran has launched near-daily drone and missile barrages targeting US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman—triggering UN Security Council condemnation and regional economic disruptions. March 25 attacks included 30 drones on Bahrain, nine on UAE and Kuwait, and six on Saudi Arabia, with one striking Kuwait International Airport. Gulf Cooperation Council nations issued joint statements vowing self-defense, as Saudi Arabia threatens retaliation and full US base access if assaults persist; Iranian state media counters with threats to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines. US troop reinforcements to the Gulf and looming Strait of Hormuz deadlines heighten escalation risks, sustaining trader focus on Iran's persistent horizontal retaliation pattern despite fluctuating strike volumes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against a Gulf State on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
67%
April 2
53%
April 3
67%
April 4
65%
April 5
49%
April 6
45%
April 7
59%
April 8
64%
April 9
64%
April 10
46%
$9,067 Vol.
April 1
$64 Vol.
67%
April 2
$0 Vol.
53%
April 3
$0 Vol.
67%
April 4
$5,723 Vol.
65%
April 5
$22 Vol.
49%
April 6
$10 Vol.
45%
April 7
$32 Vol.
59%
April 8
$172 Vol.
64%
April 9
$3,044 Vol.
64%
April 10
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israeli war with Iran ignited by late February 2026 strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, Tehran has launched near-daily drone and missile barrages targeting US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman—triggering UN Security Council condemnation and regional economic disruptions. March 25 attacks included 30 drones on Bahrain, nine on UAE and Kuwait, and six on Saudi Arabia, with one striking Kuwait International Airport. Gulf Cooperation Council nations issued joint statements vowing self-defense, as Saudi Arabia threatens retaliation and full US base access if assaults persist; Iranian state media counters with threats to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines. US troop reinforcements to the Gulf and looming Strait of Hormuz deadlines heighten escalation risks, sustaining trader focus on Iran's persistent horizontal retaliation pattern despite fluctuating strike volumes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,067Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israeli war with Iran ignited by late February 2026 strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, Tehran has launched near-daily drone and missile barrages targeting US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman—triggering UN Security Council condemnation and regional economic disruptions. March 25 attacks included 30 drones on Bahrain, nine on UAE and Kuwait, and six on Saudi Arabia, with one striking Kuwait International Airport. Gulf Cooperation Council nations issued joint statements vowing self-defense, as Saudi Arabia threatens retaliation and full US base access if assaults persist; Iranian state media counters with threats to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines. US troop reinforcements to the Gulf and looming Strait of Hormuz deadlines heighten escalation risks, sustaining trader focus on Iran's persistent horizontal retaliation pattern despite fluctuating strike volumes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$9,067Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israeli war with Iran ignited by late February 2026 strikes killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, Tehran has launched near-daily drone and missile barrages targeting US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman—triggering UN Security Council condemnation and regional economic disruptions. March 25 attacks included 30 drones on Bahrain, nine on UAE and Kuwait, and six on Saudi Arabia, with one striking Kuwait International Airport. Gulf Cooperation Council nations issued joint statements vowing self-defense, as Saudi Arabia threatens retaliation and full US base access if assaults persist; Iranian state media counters with threats to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines. US troop reinforcements to the Gulf and looming Strait of Hormuz deadlines heighten escalation risks, sustaining trader focus on Iran's persistent horizontal retaliation pattern despite fluctuating strike volumes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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