Amid the 2026 Iran-US-Israel war, Iran has launched multiple retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and near Oman since late February, targeting US military bases like Prince Sultan Air Base and infrastructure, with UAE intercepting over 400 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones as of late March. Gulf nations condemned these as sovereignty violations, urging continued US action while warning of potential retaliation; recent escalations include Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi and UAE targets injuring US troops. Threats persist, such as IRGC vows to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines if provoked further, alongside US Marine deployments and President Trump's signals of possible de-escalation, keeping tensions volatile ahead of any ceasefire talks or ground operations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against a Gulf State on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
$10,269 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 1
92%
April 2
73%
April 3
74%
April 4
87%
April 5
60%
April 6
54%
April 7
55%
April 8
68%
April 9
75%
April 10
51%
$10,269 Vol.
April 1
$1,144 Vol.
92%
April 2
$0 Vol.
73%
April 3
$0 Vol.
74%
April 4
$5,723 Vol.
87%
April 5
$22 Vol.
60%
April 6
$30 Vol.
54%
April 7
$64 Vol.
55%
April 8
$172 Vol.
68%
April 9
$3,114 Vol.
75%
April 10
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran-US-Israel war, Iran has launched multiple retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and near Oman since late February, targeting US military bases like Prince Sultan Air Base and infrastructure, with UAE intercepting over 400 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones as of late March. Gulf nations condemned these as sovereignty violations, urging continued US action while warning of potential retaliation; recent escalations include Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi and UAE targets injuring US troops. Threats persist, such as IRGC vows to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines if provoked further, alongside US Marine deployments and President Trump's signals of possible de-escalation, keeping tensions volatile ahead of any ceasefire talks or ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$10,269Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the 2026 Iran-US-Israel war, Iran has launched multiple retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and near Oman since late February, targeting US military bases like Prince Sultan Air Base and infrastructure, with UAE intercepting over 400 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones as of late March. Gulf nations condemned these as sovereignty violations, urging continued US action while warning of potential retaliation; recent escalations include Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi and UAE targets injuring US troops. Threats persist, such as IRGC vows to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines if provoked further, alongside US Marine deployments and President Trump's signals of possible de-escalation, keeping tensions volatile ahead of any ceasefire talks or ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$10,269Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Iran-US-Israel war, Iran has launched multiple retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and near Oman since late February, targeting US military bases like Prince Sultan Air Base and infrastructure, with UAE intercepting over 400 ballistic missiles and thousands of drones as of late March. Gulf nations condemned these as sovereignty violations, urging continued US action while warning of potential retaliation; recent escalations include Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi and UAE targets injuring US troops. Threats persist, such as IRGC vows to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines if provoked further, alongside US Marine deployments and President Trump's signals of possible de-escalation, keeping tensions volatile ahead of any ceasefire talks or ground operations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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