In the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran launched retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. military facilities hosted in multiple Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—starting March 1, 2026, after reported Israeli and U.S. attacks killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Gulf states issued unified condemnations, expelled Iranian diplomats, and warned of potential military responses, with Saudi Arabia's foreign minister signaling readiness to strike back if attacks persist. A March 23 assessment noted fewer Iranian strikes on Saudi targets since March 22, suggesting tentative de-escalation, though threats to energy infrastructure continue amid Houthi missile launches on Israel and U.S. bases. Traders eye U.S. Marine deployments and Gulf diplomatic pressures on Washington for neutralization of Iran's capabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran military action against a Gulf State on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
67%
April 2
52%
April 3
68%
April 4
65%
April 5
49%
April 6
44%
April 7
59%
April 8
65%
April 9
66%
April 10
45%
$9,033 Vol.
April 1
$63 Vol.
67%
April 2
$0 Vol.
52%
April 3
$0 Vol.
68%
April 4
$5,723 Vol.
65%
April 5
$22 Vol.
49%
April 6
$10 Vol.
44%
April 7
$0 Vol.
59%
April 8
$172 Vol.
65%
April 9
$3,044 Vol.
66%
April 10
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran launched retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. military facilities hosted in multiple Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—starting March 1, 2026, after reported Israeli and U.S. attacks killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Gulf states issued unified condemnations, expelled Iranian diplomats, and warned of potential military responses, with Saudi Arabia's foreign minister signaling readiness to strike back if attacks persist. A March 23 assessment noted fewer Iranian strikes on Saudi targets since March 22, suggesting tentative de-escalation, though threats to energy infrastructure continue amid Houthi missile launches on Israel and U.S. bases. Traders eye U.S. Marine deployments and Gulf diplomatic pressures on Washington for neutralization of Iran's capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,033Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran launched retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. military facilities hosted in multiple Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—starting March 1, 2026, after reported Israeli and U.S. attacks killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Gulf states issued unified condemnations, expelled Iranian diplomats, and warned of potential military responses, with Saudi Arabia's foreign minister signaling readiness to strike back if attacks persist. A March 23 assessment noted fewer Iranian strikes on Saudi targets since March 22, suggesting tentative de-escalation, though threats to energy infrastructure continue amid Houthi missile launches on Israel and U.S. bases. Traders eye U.S. Marine deployments and Gulf diplomatic pressures on Washington for neutralization of Iran's capabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$9,033Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, Iran launched retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. military facilities hosted in multiple Gulf states—including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman—starting March 1, 2026, after reported Israeli and U.S. attacks killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Gulf states issued unified condemnations, expelled Iranian diplomats, and warned of potential military responses, with Saudi Arabia's foreign minister signaling readiness to strike back if attacks persist. A March 23 assessment noted fewer Iranian strikes on Saudi targets since March 22, suggesting tentative de-escalation, though threats to energy infrastructure continue amid Houthi missile launches on Israel and U.S. bases. Traders eye U.S. Marine deployments and Gulf diplomatic pressures on Washington for neutralization of Iran's capabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions