Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Tehran, Iran's Assembly of Experts and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) elevated his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, leveraging his behind-the-scenes influence in security apparatus and clerical networks, driving his 46.6% trader consensus as frontrunner to hold office by year-end. Recent reports of Mojtaba's injuries from the strikes and unverified health rumors introduce uncertainty, tempering odds below certainty. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi draws 13.5% on calls for nationwide strikes and regime transition amid wartime chaos, while lower probabilities for clerics like Alireza Arafi (3.9%) and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf (6.9%) reflect IRGC prioritization over broader elite consensus, with "No Head of State" at 5.5% signaling instability risks. Ongoing escalations and proxy actions could shift dynamics before December 31.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoLíder do Irão no final de 2026?
Líder do Irão no final de 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 46.6%
Reza Pahlavi 14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.9%
Hassan Khomeini 5.5%
$5,145,637 Vol.
$5,145,637 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
47%
Reza Pahlavi
14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
Hassan Khomeini
6%
Sem Chefe de Estado
5%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Hassan Rouhani
3%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Maryam Rajavi
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 46.6%
Reza Pahlavi 14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.9%
Hassan Khomeini 5.5%
$5,145,637 Vol.
$5,145,637 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
47%
Reza Pahlavi
14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
Hassan Khomeini
6%
Sem Chefe de Estado
5%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Hassan Rouhani
3%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Maryam Rajavi
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Tehran, Iran's Assembly of Experts and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) elevated his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March, leveraging his behind-the-scenes influence in security apparatus and clerical networks, driving his 46.6% trader consensus as frontrunner to hold office by year-end. Recent reports of Mojtaba's injuries from the strikes and unverified health rumors introduce uncertainty, tempering odds below certainty. Exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi draws 13.5% on calls for nationwide strikes and regime transition amid wartime chaos, while lower probabilities for clerics like Alireza Arafi (3.9%) and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf (6.9%) reflect IRGC prioritization over broader elite consensus, with "No Head of State" at 5.5% signaling instability risks. Ongoing escalations and proxy actions could shift dynamics before December 31.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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