Trader consensus favors 2–3 successful Iranian targets at 50%, reflecting limited verified hits in recent Gulf and Red Sea incidents—including a direct Iranian anti-ship missile strike on a tanker near Qatar on April 1 causing hull damage, three vessels targeted near the UAE on March 28 with one catching fire, and a Houthi unmanned surface vessel and drone attack on a US-linked tanker earlier in March—amid robust US naval patrols and interception capabilities that have constrained escalation. The 33.5% odds on 10+ capture tail risks of intensified Houthi retaliation following their late-March missile barrage on Israel, which stoked fears of renewed merchant vessel strikes, though diplomatic signals and historical de-escalation patterns temper expectations for a shipping campaign through April 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2–3 51%
10+ 33.5%
4–5 18%
6–7 12%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
30 abr 2026
2–3
50%
4–5
16%
6–7
12%
8–9
9%
10+
34%
2–3 51%
10+ 33.5%
4–5 18%
6–7 12%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
30 abr 2026
2–3
$3,646 Vol.
50%
4–5
$169 Vol.
16%
6–7
$2,163 Vol.
12%
8–9
$4,889 Vol.
9%
10+
$166 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 successful Iranian targets at 50%, reflecting limited verified hits in recent Gulf and Red Sea incidents—including a direct Iranian anti-ship missile strike on a tanker near Qatar on April 1 causing hull damage, three vessels targeted near the UAE on March 28 with one catching fire, and a Houthi unmanned surface vessel and drone attack on a US-linked tanker earlier in March—amid robust US naval patrols and interception capabilities that have constrained escalation. The 33.5% odds on 10+ capture tail risks of intensified Houthi retaliation following their late-March missile barrage on Israel, which stoked fears of renewed merchant vessel strikes, though diplomatic signals and historical de-escalation patterns temper expectations for a shipping campaign through April 30.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$35,762Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2–3 successful Iranian targets at 50%, reflecting limited verified hits in recent Gulf and Red Sea incidents—including a direct Iranian anti-ship missile strike on a tanker near Qatar on April 1 causing hull damage, three vessels targeted near the UAE on March 28 with one catching fire, and a Houthi unmanned surface vessel and drone attack on a US-linked tanker earlier in March—amid robust US naval patrols and interception capabilities that have constrained escalation. The 33.5% odds on 10+ capture tail risks of intensified Houthi retaliation following their late-March missile barrage on Israel, which stoked fears of renewed merchant vessel strikes, though diplomatic signals and historical de-escalation patterns temper expectations for a shipping campaign through April 30.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$35,762Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 2–3 successful Iranian targets at 50%, reflecting limited verified hits in recent Gulf and Red Sea incidents—including a direct Iranian anti-ship missile strike on a tanker near Qatar on April 1 causing hull damage, three vessels targeted near the UAE on March 28 with one catching fire, and a Houthi unmanned surface vessel and drone attack on a US-linked tanker earlier in March—amid robust US naval patrols and interception capabilities that have constrained escalation. The 33.5% odds on 10+ capture tail risks of intensified Houthi retaliation following their late-March missile barrage on Israel, which stoked fears of renewed merchant vessel strikes, though diplomatic signals and historical de-escalation patterns temper expectations for a shipping campaign through April 30.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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